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February 15, 2010
CRU's Former Head Phil Jones: Well, I Guess Maybe There Hasn't Been Any Warming Since 1995, And Oh Yeah, Maybe The Medieval Warm Period and Subsequent Periods Were Warmer Than Things Are NowWhat precisely is left of this "theory"? [Question:] Do you agree that according to the global temperature record used by the IPCC, the rates of global warming from 1860-1880, 1910-1940 and 1975-1998 were identical? That "Yes" at the end is the answer to whether each is statistically significant -- as you can see, they all are, and all are pretty much just as significant as the current period of warming (assuming it exists). He later claims this doesn't mean much, because he says he can explain previous periods of warming by volcanic and solar activity, which cannot (he maintains) explain the current period of warming. But as Powerline notes, he's simply wrong about that. He also claims -- unscientifically, as Powerline notes -- that if we can't explain warming by two factors (volcanic activity and solar activity), it must of course all be due to human activity. Not only is that silly to begin with, but he completely blows off the oscillations of the ocean, which seem to track pretty well with temperature changes. And then there's that pesky Medieval Warm Period. [Question:] There is a debate over whether the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was global or not. If it were to be conclusively shown that it was a global phenomenon, would you accept that this would undermine the premise that mean surface atmospheric temperatures during the latter part of the 20th Century were unprecedented? There is "much debate" over whether the MWP was global? Gee, that comes as a shock to me, because I keep being told there is no debate about -- the warmistas claim the MWP didn't exist, that the very clear (as he himself calls it) evidence of high temperatures in the northern hemisphere are offset by unsubstantiated low temperatures in the conveniently-lacking-in-temperature-proxies southern hemispheres. That is the whole claim of the hockey stick -- that temperatures were flat for 1000 years and only now is there significant warming. Compare these two graphs -- the hockey stick, and a more sensible chart of global temperatures, and the one that once was completely accepted by the scientific community (also known as "the overwhelming consensus," aka "the science is settled). Obviously, if there was a Medieval Warm Period (and there, you know, was) then the current warming is not "unprecedented." In fact, it's small beans compared to the MWP. And the MWP was a period of great bounty for the earth-- the plentiful crops in fact (if I'm remembering right, and I think I am) were a major factor in ushering the Renaissance, as fewer humans were needed to produce food and more people became artisans, merchants, and so forth. That's a big, big problem with the Warmistas admitting the MWP -- a higher temperature then actually translated into an era of plenty, and progress. Pretty much tells you right there that our current temperature is not our best temperature -- our "best" temperature seems to be a degree or two higher than it is now. And the science continues to unsettle every day -- now a key IPCC claim, oft-repeated by the stooge Pachuari, that African crop yields would decline by 50%, turns out to be made-up nonsense by a guy who literally makes his living (literally) on carbon credits. Oh -- one more startling omission by Jones. The debate? That we keep being told "is over"? He says it's not over at all. [Question:] When scientists say "the debate on climate change is over", what exactly do they mean - and what don't they mean? Not only does he say he doesn't agree that "the debate is over," but that the vast majority of scientists (his words) don't think the debate is over, either. So why do Al Gore and Barack Obama keep saying it is? Their boy -- boy! -- is himself saying that the debate is not over. Ooops: I forgot a key admission. Phil Jones justifies his "hide the decline" tactics by admitting he includes tree ring proxies which are congruent with his theory and tossing out proxy series which undermine it.
And note even the left-wing Guardian UK is writing balanced pieces here -- in this piece, they note that the "hockey stick" was thought badly flawed and cherry-picked even by the CRU. And this continues to be incredibly important, because even as AGW comes apart under the very first scrutiny ever given to the "theory", the White House is planning on using inherent -- and invented -- executive powers to force a carbon-controlling regime on us that would never in a thousand years pass Congress. And Oh Yeah: The Evidence That the Earth Has Warmed At All is In Serious Doubt: As related already by DrewM. A new peer-reviewed paper shows that temperature increases are greatly and consistently overstated, because the readings aren't properly adjusted down for factors like urbanization. And let me re-quote this withering passage: In an interview with The Times Robert Watson said that all the errors exposed so far in the report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) resulted in overstatements of the severity of the problem. Professor Watson, currently chief scientific adviser to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, said that if the errors had just been innocent mistakes, as has been claimed by the current chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, some would probably have understated the impact of climate change. "That is worrying." This guy just accused the IPCC of manipulating data -- he discards the "innocent mistakes" explanation as implausible, because if the mistakes were innocent, we should see them going either way. In fact, they all go the exact same way.
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Monday Overnight Open Thread - January 20, 2025 [Doof]
Invasion of the Apple Snatchers Cafe At Last Night's Rally, Trump Was Joined on the Stage By His Strongest Totally-Not-Gay Supporters Quick Hits Surprise: Defender of Normzzz and Protector of the Criminal FBI Pardons Terrorist Who Murdered Two FBI Agents Quick Update on "Team DeLulu" Cope Border Patrol Trucks Are En Route to the Southern Border Elections Have Consequences: The TSA Official Who Put Tulsi Gabbard on the Terrorist Watch List Has Been Fired The Inaugural Ceremonies, Continued "A Revolution of Common Sense:" Trump's Inaugural Address "For Americans, January 20, 2025 is Liberation Day." Search
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