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February 15, 2010

Control of the Senate

DrewM. sends this along as counter-point to my Eeyore-ism on retaking the Senate:

So I think the GOP will be favored in Indiana however the candidate field shakes out this week, and I think the GOP is favored in Arkansas, Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and North Dakota as well. Win all those and you have a 52-48 Democratic Senate. Beyond that you have Illinois looking like a toss up and then California and New York looking like they definitely have the potential to become highly competitive based on the incumbents' lack of popularity and Washington and Wisconsin as maybe the longest shots for the GOP but possible with an A list candidate.

And really, if it's a 50-50 situation does anyone trust Joe Lieberman not to throw his hat with the Republicans? Three months ago I would have said Republicans have about a 5% chance of taking back the Senate. Now I'd put it more in the one in three chance range, and rising by the week. And who knows when the bad news for Democrats will stop pouring in...

Thanks, Drew.

I'm not ruling out Republican wins in AR, IL, PA, CO, or IN. That's why I wrote "toss up" next to those races. But, I highly doubt that Republicans are going to take Boxer's or Gillibrand's seats and anyone who holds up Scott Brown as an example is ignoring the unusually perfect GOP candidate, the exceptionally bad Democrat candidate, and the extremely unusual circumstances of the special election. None of Boxer's GOP challengers has managed to beat her in the polls yet, even though Democrats are having the worst year of their life.


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posted by Gabriel Malor at 12:03 PM

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