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January 28, 2010

Polls: Campbell Within Four Points of Boxer; Tommy Thompson Leads Feingold

Cambell 41%, Boxer 45%, and remember the old saw about incumbents being under 50%, and most undecideds breaking for a challenger.

She has bigger leads on Fiorina and DeVore, but nothing huge. I mean, no Coakley-sized leads or anything.

And in Wisconsin, Tommy Thompson has a lead of hitherto-believed-to-be-untouchable Russ Feingold.

One more Democratic senator who has long been regarded as a safe prospect for reelection may be facing a challenging year in 2010.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in Wisconsin finds Republican Tommy Thompson edging incumbent Russ Feingold 47% to 43% in a hypothetical U.S. Senate match-up. Five percent (5%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

Any incumbent who attracts less than 50% support at this point in a campaign is considered potentially vulnerable.

Thompson hasn't jumped into the race yet; he's just being urged to do so. Obviously, with good poll numbers, his entry becomes more likely.

A lot of these guys might genuinely not want to serve anymore in politics. I hope they will run anyway, and turn that into a virtue, promising to only run and serve for a single term.

Hell, it would be nice if they promised to serve a fraction of a term. Give us two years or something.

Although most pollsters are being very conservative on the odds of a GOP takeover of the Senate (the House looks almost likely at this point), personally, the way things look now, I'd say the Senate is more likely than not to flip to the GOP, too.


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posted by Ace at 10:50 AM

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