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January 05, 2010

Rasmussen: Scott Brown Within Nine in MA-Senate

50-41.

Health care will be a factor:

The health care issue is expected to play a big role in the debate and Massachusetts voters hold modestly favorable attitudes about the proposed legislation. In the Bay State, 53% favor the plan working its way through Congress and 45% oppose it.

However, as is the case nationally, those who feel strongly about the bill are more likely to be opposed. The overall figures include 36% who Strongly Oppose the plan while 27% Strongly Favor it.

And Brown is better-liked:

Twenty-one percent (21%) of those likely to vote in the special election have a very favorable opinion of Coakley, while 22% have a Very Unfavorable view. For Brown, the numbers are 25% very favorable and 5% very unfavorable.

See Allah, of all people, for some optimism and unabashed boosterism of Scott. Make no mistake; Scott is still very much the underdog. But he also seems to be an underdog with an outside chance of winning.

So if you're committed to stopping health care with a 41st vote against cloture, and don't mind expressing that commitment with cash-money, donate to the guy. The NRSC is staying out of this one, so far.

Turnout Factor: Turnout will be low-ish which will help Scott -- assuming the GOP mobilizes for him and generates the usual Republican advantage in turnout.

I forget the exact numbers, but near the end of the Christie-Corzine campaign, the polls had it tied, or Christie a little ahead, or, more and more, Corzine a little ahead. Christie wound up winning fairly comfortably.

So turnout -- and money -- are critical in these things. If Brown can pull to within, say, 5 in the polls, that might actually he's ahead where it really counts -- in actual voting.

And that's not a lot of ground to make up, really. He's an appealing guy, Coakely isn't particularly beloved (and is connected to the radioactive Duvall administration), and there's a tea party fervor that Brown can tap into.

The Debates: Are still upcoming. A commenter calling himself "Huge, Quickly" points out that Mitt Romney beat his Democratic opponent largely on the strength of his debate performance.


The Obama Factor: I wonder how many Democrats -- maybe of the PUMAish persuasion -- are pretty cranked off at Obama and will cross over to vote for a Republican just to block him.

There is debate about a "Wilder effect" (whether whites claim to vote for black candidates in polling interviews at higher rates than they actually do), and here any such effect would be indirect and attenuated (i.e., voting for the Republican as a proxy for voting against Obama), but still I wonder if something like that isn't good for, say, 2%.

There are a lot of Democrats pretty upset by the health care thing. Especially seniors, I'd imagine.



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posted by Ace at 11:14 AM

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