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December 11, 2009

Karl Rove On The GOP's Prospects In The Senate In 2010

The Dark Lord and Master takes a look at Republican prospects in the Senate next year and sees a lot of cause for optimism.

With a good environment this election cycle, Republicans have recruited competitive candidates who could turn otherwise close contests into runaway victories, likely defeats into wins or at least close contests that, if things break right, tip to the GOP.

Today, there are only 40 Republicans in the Senate. In January 2011, there could be 44, 46 or more if the party runs strong campaigns in contests that haven't jelled yet, or if some Democrats retire instead of risking defeat.

One feature giving Republicans an edge is that several senate seats are up for grabs because the politicians who were elected to fill them are now serving in the Obama administration. This includes seats formerly held by Mr. Obama and Vice President Joe Biden.

...The GOP probably won't win control of the Senate, but Republicans lead five incumbent Democratic senators in the polls, often by double digits, and trail in just one seat of their own (by a point). A lot can happen in a year, but if Democrats keep telling themselves that their greatest danger will come from not passing monstrosities like Mr. Reid's health-care bill, Republicans will have a target-rich environment next year. We are once again in a GOP ascendancy, sparked by talented, energetic challengers.

I get that politics is a zero sum game, we win-they lose but I have one somber note...Republican gains (assuming there will be some, even some substantial ones) are pretty much coming because the Democrats have pissed people off faster than anyone thought possible. It's not as if the Republicans are gaining because they have lots of new and popular ideas like in 1980 or 1994.

So let's not forget a lot of these GOP types were the cause of our trip to the wilderness. This is a 3 step process...

Step 1- Win (in '10 and '12)
Step 2- ??? Hold to the principles of the rhetoric that get you there
Step 3- America Succeeds

A year is an eternity in politics, just ask Obama, Reid and Pelosi, so we shouldn't get too focused on anything but Step 1 but the ground work will be laid now for what comes after that.

And just to be clear, 3rd party runs? Just Say No!

3rd party candidates focusing on spending will be a disaster that results in Democrats surviving. Complain all you want about the two major parties but that's how the system works and I'm not interested in electing more Democrats to prove a point or something.

Related enough: Sen Nelson (of Florida) calls Reid's health care plan "a non-starter".

Reid announced this week that Democrats had reached a "broad agreement" on replacing the public option with a Medicare "buy-in" provision and a series of non-profit insurance plans similar to what federal employees are offered.

But apparently that "broad agreement" didn't include Nelson.

"I think when we get the score back from CBO that itís going to be too costly," Nelson told Fox News Live today.

So, Harry, what's Plan C?


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posted by DrewM. at 12:50 PM

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