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November 23, 2009

Democrats' Dilemma: Vote for ObamaCare and Be Voted Out of Office. Vote Against ObamaCare and Be Voted Out of Office.

Long story short: Obama and his political masterminds Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid have constructed, of their own volition, a massive wedge issue in which either the moderates will be offended, and so they'll lose, or their liberal base will be offended, and so they'll lose.

There is a price to pay with independents if a strong health care bill is passed. Democrats lead 37-30 with them in general on the generic ballot, but they say they’ll vote 44-37 for the GOP if a bill with a public option makes it through.

The lose-lose proposition, I think, helps the bill a little, because Democrats might take the position that If I'm going to be voted out of office anyway, I'm going to need the support of those liberal advocacy groups and George Soros to give me a nice job after I lose this one.

Meanwhile, a long-serving Blue Dog is retiring. (I mentioned last week that Charlie Cook had forecast long-serving Blue Dogs in Red States were in more trouble than the youngish, more centrist newcomers that won purplish districts in 2006-2008.)

n very much related and important news, a Blue Dog who’s held a red seat for the past 12 years has suddenly decided now might be a good time to retire. Quote: “Moore, who won his last race 56 to 40 percent over Jordan, was in trouble because of his support for many of President Barack Obama’s initiatives, including the stimulus package and health care reform.”

It's a vicious cycle for them and a virtuous one for us. As we look stronger, more top-tier name candidates step forward to claim what looks like low-hanging fruit. Meanwhile many of their entrenched incumbents begin to retire -- why bother? why not go out on a win? -- and the forbidding circumstances discourage many Democratic candidates who might otherwise run.

I am wondering if at some point a few of these Red State Blue Dogs don't float the idea to the RNC of a Reverse Specter: Let me run as a Republican, and keep the field clear for me, and I'll join your party and vote the way you like.

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posted by Ace at 09:48 PM

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