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November 10, 2009

Polls, Polls, Polls: Snowe In Trouble in Maine; Obama Hurt Deeds; ObamaCare Slips Eleven Points (!) in Gallup

Rounding up the polls that were already rounded up at Hot Air:

46% of Maine GOPers disapprove of Olympia Snowe, while only 40% support her. And 59% of Maine GOPers would chose a "more conservative alternative" in a primary contest. Only 31% would stick with Snowe.

The PPP poll blog speculates that if Snowe is to continue in office, she'll have to do so as an Independent.

For those who can't get enough of the "shoot the RINOs" stuff: Yeah, I happen to agree, this is a low-cost, high-possible-reward situation where, indeed, conservatives should get behind and support a challenger to Snowe, and not really care too much if she (predictably) leaves the party. She's simply not doing enough for the party on any issue.

Fact I wasn't aware of: 68% of Maine GOPers consider themselves "conservative," and among that majority, 56% disapprove of Snowe.

A pollster finds that Obama did in fact hurt Deeds in Virginia-- a majority of voters there agreed with the idea it was important to put a "check" on Obama by electing a governor from the opposing party.

Voters opted for the check and balance by a 55%-35% margin. Independents (who voted for Obama by one point in 2008 in Virginia) opted for a check and balance by an overwhelming 58%-25% margin. Throughout our tracking, we regularly found open-ended comments from Independent voters saying they wanted to balance the overwhelming power that the Democrats have in Washington. Given the absolute power the Dems have in DC, that is a very strong message for GOPers running in 2010.

We tested the impact of the Obama endorsement — 24% said they were more likely to vote for Deeds, while 32% were less likely. The minus eight increment on that can not be encouraging to the White House.

Finally, we tested a simple agree/disagree: “Creigh Deeds’ policies are too close to the policies of President Barack Obama.” Fully 52% agreed and only 30% disagreed. By intensity, 30% strongly agreed and only 9% strongly disagreed. Revisionists on the left are blaming Deeds for not embracing Obama enough, but Virginia voters did not agree. Among Independents, it was 52% agree/28% disagree.

Meanwhile, President Prissypants is unable to sell his abortion to the public. The percentage of those who would urge their representative to vote for ObamaCare is down 11 points in a month.

Allah focuses on that particular question, which doesn't include leaners (leaners get reprompted and asked, "Come on, stop dicking around and give me an answer, you douche."). With and without leaners:

The leaners have backed away from supporting Obama care to opposing it -- a 15 point net swing (support -8, oppose +7) in a month.

That said, it has always been my belief (shared by Dick Morris, who recently said the exact same thing) that only when opposition gets to 60% is ObamaCare definitely beaten. Any lower than that and there is a good chance that Democrats will ram it through anyway, on the theories that 1, it's better to pass something unpopular than to pass nothing, and 2, it is easier to beg for forgiveness than to receive permission, and 3, this is a once-in-history chance to remake the US economy into a socialist one, and that's worth losing some seats over.

As a cynical commenter pointed out: There will be plenty of job opportunities for socialist bureaucrats in the Post-Obama age, so Democrats losing their seats will know they have a lucrative future in wealth redistribution.



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posted by Ace at 01:56 PM

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