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November 03, 2009

Hoffman Results Thread: 5/6ths of Vote In, and Hoffman Still Trails by 4000 Votes

Close, but see below: Drew says the upbeat mood from earlier is now replaced by a bad feeling, and Hoffman is merely splitting a county he'd thought he'd be winning 2:1.

Absentees? I don't know when absentees went out. I'm assuming most were mailed in before Hoffman's surge, so I have to think most of those will go to Owens and Scozzer. No help for Hoffman there, I fear. Ten thousand of them.

Update: But exit polls say our man wins. Clarification: Not really exit polls; something a DNC staffer reported. Who knows, perhaps to create a "surprise" end of night win for one of their guys.

Leaked exits (via Ben Smith's twitter account) had Hoffman leading Owens 50-47, with Scozzafava at 2.5%. At this rate, it'll be tomorrow before we know who won.

On the other hand, InTrade is now saying Hoffman. I said "So what?" when AHFF Geoff told me that InTrade had turned heavily for Christie; well, we see that was predictive there, so what do I know.

Drew reports that people are getting nervous at camp Hoffman, and there is a "bad feeling" in the room, but that is, kind of, to be expected: The numbers so far show a 8 point Owens lead.

Update: Allah was right-- Scozzafava was drawing more votes from Owens than from Hoffman, and her exit from the race benefited, as I'm sure she guessed, Owens.

His last update notes that Hoffman is merely splitting a county where a previous poll had shown him with a 2:1 edge. Obviously, he'd be counting on those votes.

Still not sure why those exit polls say 50-47 Hoffman. Plus, exit polls skew liberal, usually.

Perhaps that was a bad tip. Comes from Ben Smith; he could be wrong. Clarification: Smith clarifies it wasn't his tip; he was retweeting a number posted by a DNC staffer. Not media exits.

UPDATE [DrewM. Reporting Live!]

Just talking to a gentlemen who has national and local polling experience.

He says given what he understands of where the votes are left, Hoffman is an a tough but doable spot.

Owens seems to be running better in areas where he was expected to do well but he's out performing that.

His sense of Hoffman's challenge is that this was a national race for many around the country but the locals wanted to talk about local issues, things like the 'roof top highway' and year round navigation of the St. Lawrence Seaway. Hoffman and his surrogates really didn't address that. It may rankle the independent streak in this area.

Please keep in mind the above is based on a conversation with a knowledgeable local who has experience in polling and this district but not based on hard facts. In other words...typical election night stuff. Add salt to taste.

Odd note, there's no organized activities from the podium here. No announcements about NJ, I've been spreading that word.

Also, just hearing from the Syracuse TV station, there are some problems with the new voting machines. There are paper backups but they won't be counted tonight.

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posted by Ace at 10:40 PM

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