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November 02, 2009

PPP: Christie Leads Corzine 47-41

The final PPP survey before the vote has Christie ahead by six. That's outside the margin of error and so, hopefully, tomorrow's vote will be firm enough to withstand a Democratic election challenge.

Interestingly, Daggett is now seen as spoiling Corzine:

Christie's advantage is due largely to his support from independents and because he has Republicans more unified around him than the Democrats are around Corzine. Christie leads Corzine 52-29 with indies, as Daggett's support with that group has declined to 16%. Christie is getting 82% of Republicans to Corzine's 72% of Democrats.

As the campaign concludes it seems like Daggett's presence in the race has actually ended up hurting Corzine more than Christie, contrary to the earlier conventional wisdom. 45% of Daggett voters say the incumbent is their second choice to 36% for the challenger. Daggett's backers report having voted for Barack Obama by a 67-23 margin last year.

New Jersey is a blue state that habitually reelects the incumbent. And President Obama sent his GOTV people to Corzine, who has been nothing but a puppet for the past two weeks. Yesterday I suggested that Corzine would pull out a bonafide win or a win via election challenge. It would be nice to be wrong.

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posted by Gabriel Malor at 10:21 AM

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