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August 04, 2009

Reversal of Fortune: Rasmussen Finds Republicans Lead on Generic Congressional Ballot... By Five Points

Outlier? Maybe. But even NPR found Republicans ahead by single point.

Rasmussen consistently shows more support for Republicans that other polls, but that doesn't mean they're wrong. Particularly since Rasmussen polls likelies.

upport for Republican congressional candidates has risen to its highest level in recent years, giving the GOPa seven-point lead [sic; they mean five] over Democrats in the latest Congressional Ballot and stretching the out-of-power party's lead to six weeks in a row.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 43% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 38% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.

...

Democrats held a six- or seven-point lead on the ballot for the first few weeks of 2009. That began to slip in early February, and from mid-April through June the two political parties were roughly even. Republicans have held a lead on the ballot since the last week in June, the first time they'd been on top in well over a year.

Women who have consistently favored Democrats now prefer the GOP by a 40% to 39% margin. Men continue to favor Republicans over Democrats 47% to 36%.

Voters not affiliated with either party prefer Republicans two-to-one - 43% to 22%.

[Update -- PA]
The Atlantic ran a piece recently suggesting that polling should be eliminated. I found it rather curious this appears just about the time Teh One starts to suck canal water in the polls.


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posted by Ace at 04:19 PM

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