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July 15, 2009

Diageo/Hotline Poll: Obama Approval Drops 9% in a Month

Let me clarify that that isn't even a net drop. That's just the pure drop in approval.

This link mentions the poll, but the press release AHFF Geoff sends me is more complete.

Obama Job Approval Rating Drops Nine Points

Poll Finds Decreased Confidence in Stimulus Spending and Concerns Over Deficit

Double-Digit Increase in Percentage of Voters Saying Country Is On the "Wrong Track"

New York, July 15, 2009 - The Diageo/Hotline Poll of 800 U.S. registered voters conducted by FD from July 9-13, 2009, finds that the percentage of American voters who approve of the job President Obama is doing has dropped nine points to 56%. The previous Diageo/ Hotline Poll, conducted from June 4-7, found that 65% of voters approved of the job he was doing.

Obama's Job Approval Ratings

With 56% of voters approving of the job he is doing, the Poll finds President Obama's job approval rating is at its lowest level recorded in the six monthly Diageo/Hotline Polls since President Obama took office.


Interestingly, compared to June, the decrease in Obama's job approval ratings is being driven primarily by decreases among male voters (-15 points), Independent voters (-15 points), and rural voters (-15 points).

The three groups whose atypically high support for a liberal presidential candidate got Obama elected.


...

The Poll also finds that the percentage of voters who say that "things are seriously off on the wrong track" has increased 12 percentage points from a record-low of 43% in last month's Poll to 55% in today's Poll.

And would people vote for him again? As of the moment, it's... not looking good for him.

...

Additionally, in looking ahead to 2012, the Poll finds that 42% of voters say they would vote to re-elect President Obama, while 39% say they would vote for someone else. The June Poll found that 46% of voters said they would vote to re-elect President Obama and 30% of voters would vote for someone else.

1, these numbers are statistically equal, and 2, any incumbent below 50% is in trouble. In fact, any incumbent below something like 52 or 53% is in trouble.

Decreasing Levels of Confidence in the Stimulus Package

The Diageo/Hotline Poll also finds a significant decrease in voter confidence in the stimulus plan passed in February. Specifically, the Poll finds only 39% of voters are confident the stimulus plan will be successful in turning around the economy, a decrease of 13 percentage points from the 52% of voters who expressed confidence in June.

...

Strong Opposition to Additional Stimulus and Quicker Recovery vs. More Debt

In the context of decreasing levels of confidence in the current stimulus package, coupled with discussion about the viability of another one, the Poll shows very little support for a proposal for another stimulus package, with only 36% saying they would support such a proposal and 52% saying they would oppose it, with 40% saying they would strongly oppose it.

At the same time, it is clear that concerns over the prospect of greater deficits trump concerns over economic recovery.

Actually, if Obama were pursuing smart policies that actually spurred recovery, a quick recovery would reduce deficits, as tax receipts go up and social welfare payments go down. But he's not, so the people chose sub-optimal Option B, as they're not offered the optimal option.

Congressmen have also taken a big hit -- Democratic Congressmen's approval dropped eight points, and Congressional Republicans' approval dropped nine points. The National Journal highlights the latter finding in a neener-neener taunt, without also noticing that Democrats in Congress lost a statistically-equivalent amount.

All branches and all parties are taking about the same hit here. But that doesn't mean the hits are equal -- Democrats, after all, control things.


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posted by Ace at 04:01 PM

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