Mullah victory makes Israeli strike more likely?

I would have to say it makes it even more likely if the Mullahs and the IRGC prevail. The Israelis had little reason to trust in the good will of an Iranian regime that was pretending at democracy, but now that they have slaughtered their own people? I wouldn't and I think Bibi Netanyahu is a fairly serious realist himself. The rest of the civilized world can equivocate and say that the Iranians don't mean all that talk about wiping Israel off the map, but I think Neda and the hundreds (or more) cut down in the streets might take them at their words and the Israelis have little choice.

There is no reasonable doubt that if they prevail, the Mullahs and IRGC will redouble efforts to finish their bomb. They wanted it before, they need it now. The chances of a diplomatic solution to that issue were near zero before the uprisings, now they approach absolute zero. Well unless somehow the revolutionaries succeed. Given the underwhelming support from the free world and the deep penetration by the regime of the web 2.0 methods they were using to communicate,  I think they are being disappeared as they are unmasked. Iran funnels all their internets through a government portal and you can bet they have captured every conversation and are busy using their Siemens/Nokia provided tools to back track to every twittering freedom lover. They can expect that midnight crash of their door being kicked in and a quick trip to the torture chamber before gulag or death.

Israel does not have the luxury of Europe, Russia, China and America of
simply hoping the Iranians decide they don't really want a bomb, or containing them once they get one. They are targets 1-100 on the Iranian master list and I don't think there is any doubt they will act to preempt. If they do, that could be the catalyst for round two of the Persian Revolution. Many say an Israeli strike would galvanize Iranian nationalism in opposition to the Zionist threat. But now the Israelis could make a valid point that they are not attacking the Iranian people, but the mad, religious and autocratic zealots who oppress and kill them. They could claim to be helping topple a regime that threatens not just Israel but the Iranian people as well. Who could argue with them?

The Arab countries in the region have plenty of reasons to worry about a Mullah nuke, and they have been sitting on the sidelines in this current crisis silently cheering the protesters even as they wonder if their own oppressed masses were watching. They would have to condemn an Israeli strike, but not that powerfully.

The real question is can the Iranian people prevail in the absence of external help. At this point it seems more likely that the French Foreign Legion would assist them than the US, but can they pull it off if everyone else simply watches to see "How this plays out"? It seems unlikely, and yet all revolutions seemed unlikely until they worked. An Israeli-Persian alliance? It could happen.

posted by Uncle Jimbo at 01:38 PM

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