Reason For Optimism?

March was a dismal month for my business and the same was reported by most of the local small businesspeople (and large company reps.) that I speak to.

But there's been an uptic in the last couple weeks, a palpable change of attitude and work is starting to roll in.

Of course, the plural of anecdote is not data.

He points to one indicator in particular with a remarkable track record: the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits. In past recessions, it has hit its peak about four weeks before the economy hit a trough and began to grow again. As of right now, the four-week average of new claims hit its peak of 650,000 in the week ended March 14.

From the Department of Labor.

In the week ending April 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 654,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 674,000. The 4-week moving average was 657,250, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average of 658,000.

So small...but hey, it's something, right?

Please check out the nifty graphs at the first link, if you're into that sort of thing.

posted by Laura. at 09:04 AM

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