Forecasters Predict 2010 Recovery

This is a crisis the likes of which we have never seen. Which will last for another 6 months.

It seems like a while since any forecast for the U.S. economy included the words “above trend.”

But that’s what the National Association for Business Economics expects next year, according to their latest survey of forecasters released Monday, even though the recession that started in December 2007 is expected to drag on a few more months.

“Following a sharp 5.0% (annual rate) contraction in the first quarter of this year and another 1.7% drop in the second quarter, NABE forecasters expect real (gross domestic product) to rise at a sub-par 1.6% rate in the second half,” said Chris Varvares, president of NABE as well as the forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers.

“The good news,” Varvares added, is the economy in 2010 “is expected to see modestly above-trend growth of 3.1%.”

A combination of factors should fuel the 2010 recovery. For one, an end to the drags on housing, consumer spending and business investment should add to growth, as should inventory building. In addition, the recently enacted fiscal stimulus package should boost the economy, although NABE economists were divided on just how much juice it will add.

Note the stimulus is the last factor mentioned, and forecasters divide on whether it will even be a factor at all. And yet we're spending $1.3 trillion for it.

While natural forces and corrections are predicted to fix the economy on their own.

posted by Ace at 12:28 PM

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