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February 11, 2009

Costs of the Stimulus

Have you ever wondered what economists talk about in email conversations?

Now you know. Seriously, though, this guy's modeling seems to match up pretty well with what the CBO was saying.

The stimulus has a big effect in 2010, but by 2012 the economy is roughly back to baseline (except for variables like the federal government debt).

...So there is short run gain from the stimulus bill, mostly in 2010, but the potential long run costs do not seem trivial. If the stimulus bill is passed and the bailout continues, it may be that large tax increases will be needed starting in late 2011 or 2012.

Well that should be fun, especially given that energy costs are bound to be higher, thanks to Obama's environmental pandering. Obama's energy non-policy may toss cold water on the recovery if higher costs limit economic growth.

Oh, and let's not forget the trade war.

Enjoy next year's bender while it lasts, folks. The hangover is going to be epic.

posted by Slublog at 09:40 AM

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Seriously, though, this guy's modeling seems to match up pretty well with what the CBO was saying. The stimulus has a big effect in 2010, but by 2012 the economy is roughly back to baseline (except for variables like the federal government debt). ...So there is short run gain from the stimulus bill, mostly in 2010, but the potential long run costs do not seem trivial. If the stimulus bill is passed and the bailout continues, it may be that large tax increases will be needed starting in late 2011 or 2012. Well that should be fun, especially given that energy costs are bound to be higher, thanks to Obama's environmental pandering. Obama's energy non-policy may toss cold water on the recovery if higher costs limit economic growth. Oh, and let's not forget the trade war. Enjoy next year's bender while it lasts, folks. The hangover is going to be epic. posted by Slublog at 09:40 AM \| Access Comments <script language="javascript" src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/addyn/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=700;cookie=info;target=_blank;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]"></script><noscript><a href="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adlink/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" target="_blank"><img src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adserv/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" border="0" width="300" height="250"></a></noscript>	Recent Comments Seems Legit: "How odd, I thought everyone understood that electr ..." rickb223 Gold & Silver Spot Prices [s][/b][/i][/u]: "You’d think they would’ve come up with ..." Commissar of Plenty and Lysenkoism in Solidarity with the Struggle : "MiG-29 has two sets of intakes Bonus hole. ..." It's me donna : "270 242 To be fair, Elon did advise that there isn ..." 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