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December 02, 2008

Racists: Georgia Democrats May Not Turn Out for Martin Because of His Race

Being a white guy and all.

The latest Public Policy Polling (D) poll out of Georgia has Saxby Chambliss up by 7 points -- 53-46 (that's not a lot of undecideds). And reading FiveThirtyEight, it's not hard to see why:

Whatever turns out to be the case, at the close of early voting Wednesday, according to the Secretary of State's office 345,564 had voted, and 22.5% of those votes were African-American, an ominous dropoff from the 34.5% of black early voters for the general election.

If Saxby does manage to significantly expand from his 3 point lead on November 4th, we can start writing the story of how the African American and youth turnout for Obama really mattered.

..

As I wrote in The Straight-Ticket Youth Vote, the identity politics vote based on Obama's personal characteristics -- young and African-American -- may have counted for as much as 6 points of his victory margin -- about 4 points in the increased youth margin and turnout, and about 2 points in increased African American turnout and margin. Not only did this benefit Obama but young people also voted straight ticket for Democratic Congressional candidates. The youth vote on November 4th was about as Democratic as the Latino vote -- and twice as large.

A little good news from Georgia would be welcome. Personally, I need it.


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posted by Ace at 02:53 PM

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