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October 07, 2008

Geraghty's "Obi Wan Kenobi" Returns to Say It's Not Nearly Over Yet

Long story short: Obama's lead is a non-convention bounce and will likely persist as long as the normal kind.

"Any pessimism now is dumbness," he said as he appeared to me recently. "A few weeks ago every swing state was coming McCain's way and he had a national lead. And some polls showed him four points and six points behind in New Jersey and New York. And now all that has gone away? Politics doesn't work like that. The American people, even in the midst of an unprecented economic crisis, don't react like that for any sustained period. Those patterns can reassert themselves."

Obi Wan talks to other Republicans, and back in July when Obama was way ahead and Republicans gloomy he said that the whole picture was likely to change dramtically by early september and McCain "would have a lead that lasted longer than just convention bounce."

He says some underlying factors — some new and some old — are still at work and helpful to McCain.

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posted by Ace at 03:57 PM

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