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October 07, 2008

Global Warming Skeptic Makes Prediction; Prediction Seems Accurate; Ergo It's Neither Science Nor News

A week ago I linked this prediction. I don't know if he's a global warming skeptic per se, but he believes the sun's varying cycles have more to do with global temperature changes than CO2 (The Invisible Killer).

Currently, the World Meteorological Organization uses the photochemical model to predict that the Antarctic springtime ozone hole will increase by another 5–10 percent by 2020. In sharp contrast, Dr. LU says the severest ozone loss will occur over the South Pole this month — with another large ozone-triggered hole occurring around 2019.

If the South Pole gets an ozone-hole maximum in the coming weeks, it will strengthen the case for cosmic rays, and endorse a Modern Warming driven by solar variations rather than human-emitted CO2. The solar model is already endorsed by oxygen isotopes in ice cores from both Greenland and the Antarctic, by microfossils in the sediments of nine oceans and hundreds of lakes worldwide, and by cave stalagmites from every continent plus New Zealand.

Well, I don't know if this is precisely what he predicted, but it sure seems like it to me:

(CNN) — This year’s ozone hole over Antarctica is larger in both size and ozone loss than last year, but not as large as in 2006, the European Space Agency said Tuesday.

The hole is actually a thinning area in the ozone layer over Antarctica. This year, the size of the thinned area over the South Pole reached about 27 million square kilometers (10.4 million square miles), compared to 25 million square kilometers (9.65 million square miles) in 2007.

Be careful as you read through the negatives -- a "bigger ozone hole" is a "thinner ozone layer," etc.

I'm also not sure if the maximum predicted is an all-time maximum or a "local maximum." So I guess I don't really know if the prediction has actually come to pass yet... but it seems to be at least getting there.

So:

Global warming alarmists make prediction, which does not come to pass.

Scientist makes contrary prediction in line with solar-warming theory which does come to pass.

Seems clear to me.

Global warming is proven. The science is settled.

Oh, and Sarah Palin is a moron for doubting global warming. But I think that just goes without saying.

Thanks to Arthur for helping me find the old post, and thanks to... not sure, a valued reader and tipster for sending me the CNN slug.


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posted by Ace at 03:30 PM

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