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August 04, 2008

On That New Rasmussen Poll: Don't Get Cocky

Today Rasmussen has Obama and McCain at a statistical dead heat. Many commentators are making noise about McCain's slight, statistically insignificant 47%-46% lead when "leaners" are included, which is the first time Rasmussen has had him ahead since Obama won the Democratic nomination.

I don't think it's anything to crow about. The one-point lead is not a meaningful description of the real world. That's what "statistically insignificant" means. The fact that Obama has lost his nine point lead in such a short period if time, however, is noteworthy. Obama has been parading around the world and pretending to be presidential while ignoring serious issues of domestic policy. "Unaffiliated voters", which I expect actually includes a lot of disgruntled Republicans and former Republicans, seem to have been key:

A week ago today, Obama had a three-percentage point lead and the candidates were even among unaffiliated voters. Today, McCain leads 52% to 37% among unaffiliateds.

It's not that they're suddenly ardent supporters of John McCain. Rather, they are getting a taste of just how unimpressive and potentially disastrous a Barack Obama presidency will be.

posted by Gabriel Malor at 12:48 PM

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The fact that Obama has lost his nine point lead in such a short period if time, however, is noteworthy. Obama has been parading around the world and pretending to be presidential while ignoring serious issues of domestic policy. "Unaffiliated voters", which I expect actually includes a lot of disgruntled Republicans and former Republicans, seem to have been key: A week ago today, Obama had a three-percentage point lead and the candidates were even among unaffiliated voters. Today, McCain leads 52% to 37% among unaffiliateds. It's not that they're suddenly ardent supporters of John McCain. Rather, they are getting a taste of just how unimpressive and potentially disastrous a Barack Obama presidency will be. posted by Gabriel Malor at 12:48 PM \| Access Comments <script language="javascript" src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/addyn/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=700;cookie=info;target=_blank;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]"></script><noscript><a href="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adlink/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" target="_blank"><img src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adserv/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" border="0" width="300" height="250"></a></noscript>	Recent Comments Decaf: "Reminds of a story my brother, a historian, told m ..." Tim "Born to Kill" Walz: "Trump is Micheal Myers !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ..." Xipe Totec: "The most pathetic Ford evah! The ALL NEW, Piece of ..." ...: "I think it has helped them quite a bit, for decade ..." 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