Sponsored Content
« Grizzly Attack Survivor: "He's Eating My Brain and I Can Feel It" | Main | Saudi Boys Drag »
May 20, 2008

Demography is Destiny

That celebration lasted a little bit longer than I expected, but I'm back. So what's up with this?

*** It’s the demographics, stupid: Besides the public polls, how do we know that Clinton is poised for victory in Kentucky, while Obama is sitting pretty in Oregon? According to Democratic politico Mike Berman, Obama has dominated the states with the largest or smallest black populations, while Clinton fares MUCH better in the states in between. Berman writes in his Washington Political Watch that Obama “has won 12 of the 15 contests in which the African-American population is less than 4%, and 10 of the 11 contests in which the African-American population is greater than 16%. In those 18 states where the population ranges from 4%-16%, Obama won 8, while Clinton won 11.” The African-American population for Kentucky? 7.3% For Oregon? 1.6%. As one Republican politico told us, these aren't primaries anymore; they’re census surveys.

I get that large numbers of blacks are supporting Obama and that--so far as this contest goes--race has become a good predictor of voting behavior. For that reason, it's no big surprise that states with large black populations are choosing Obama.

I'm wondering what it is about the states with small black populations that make them favor Obama. Is it wealth? Education?


digg this
posted by Gabriel Malor at 11:56 AM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
OrangeEnt: "London's subway system is f*cking awesome! Trains ..."

Legally Sufficient: "Hard to believe that tomorrow is the last day of M ..."

Jim[/i][/b][/s][/u]: "Ralph Cramden had the Lunar Trajectory figured out ..."

18-1: "The America of 60 years ago would beat modern Amer ..."

Tom Servo: "The shuttle was a good vehicle, but it was vastly ..."

nurse ratched : "Very cool ONT! Thank you Mr Ball! To infin ..."

CharlieBrown'sDildo: "Hey Roger Ball! London's subway system is f*cki ..."

Bertram Cabot, Jr.: " [i]Will private and commercial spaceflight be ex ..."

bear with asymmetrical balls: "[i]Glad to see more doubt being cast on the allege ..."

mikeski: "[i]I had occasion (business travel) to ride the D. ..."

BlackOrchid: "SEPTA omg the suck ..."

Archimedes: "[i]I had occasion (business travel) to ride the D. ..."

Recent Entries
Search


Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64