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March 28, 2008

A Hopeful Analysis of the Sadrist Uprising in Basra

Hopeful =/= necessarily correct, but quite a different take than I'm used to seeing.

Another important aspect of this operation is the excessive enthusiasm of the UIA-led government in striking the Sadrists, who are supposed to be part of the UIA and are also Shiites.

This is the first sign of the rising election fever in the south. Word on the street is that Sadrists want to hijack the provincial elections. Everybody knows that their criminal methods can severely reduce the chances for holding fair elections and may grant Sadr’s people huge gains at the expense of other Shiite factions such as the SIIC, Da’wa and Fadheela. The stakes are high for the SIIC in particular whose federal dream in the south, which Sadr is opposed to, hinges on the results of provincial elections.

If Sadr is to be cut down to size before the provincial election law can be passed, presumably his rivals would be able to compete in a relatively more civil way.

The outcome of this operation in my opinion will not involve the extermination of Sadr’s militia but rather the reduction of its power.

It's not all honeysuckle and mead, of course.

And the American forces are there too, at least in the air. And they have a shit list, and it's not a good thing to be on that list.

Joshua Micah Ezekiah Bosworth Charlie-Num-Num Marshall makes all bloggers sad pandas by embarrassing us by getting a fact utterly wrong in making a kneejerk partisan point about Iraq. Confederate Yankee notes, however, that this simply makes him more attractive as a recruit for the MSM.

Thanks to CJ.


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posted by Ace at 01:40 PM

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