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January 14, 2008

Will This Never End? UPDATED

OLD! Scroll down to see Liberrocky and Ace discuss the new numbers.

Update: The new numbers for South Carolina are out. McCain is nine points out in front of Huckabee, who seems to be losing ground to Thompson. Unfortunately for the Fredheads, Thompson does not appear to be gaining ground quick enough.

John McCain 28%
Mike Huckabee 19%
Mitt Romney 17%
Fred Thompson 16%
Rudy Giuliani 5%
Ron Paul 5%

Thompson has been directly challenging Huckabee on the campaign trail and hoping to gain some traction that will keep his campaign afloat. Earlier this year, Thompson had hoped to exploit dissatisfaction with the rest of the field and emerge as the choice for conservatives. When his campaign failed to take off, Huckabee saw the same opening and capitalized on it in a way Thompson did not. As recently as November, Thompson was tied for the lead in South Carolina.

The race remains very fluid with 8% of voters undecided and 11% saying there’s a good chance they could change their mind.

Original Post:
/C3PO whine.

Republicans will vote in Michigan on Tuesday and Nevada and South Carolina on Saturday. I'm already mad at voters in both states, and I don't even know why.

According to the latest polls, Romney and McCain are within the margin in Michigan, but there's no telling how crossover Democrats will affect the outcome. I think Romney is in make-or-break territory this week, no matter how much money his campaign has left (which may not be much after all). As voters settle in on the big winners, he will only see his numbers sink farther. I suspect his campaign knows it, too. By pulling their ads in South Carolina and Florida, they've put all their eggs in one high-risk basket.

South Carolina is a bit of a mystery at the moment. The last reputable poll there was conducted on Wednesday, which means we still haven't seen how things shook out after the debate in which Fred Thompson woke up. Both Huckabee and Paul took marvelous beatings led by Thompson, which Romney and McCain joined, and that's bound to show up in the polls which were conducted over the weekend. At last report, Huckabee and McCain were vying for the top spot, and you know which one of those devils I dislike more.

One thing to consider: I'm tired of the primaries, but you can bet that the candidates are ready to fall down and sleep for a month.


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posted by Gabriel Malor at 05:04 PM

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