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January 08, 2008


Ace of Spades Projection: Hillary Wins

AP Just Called It For Hillary. The Comeback Queen!!


Hillary Still the AoS Projected Winner. Now 7000 or so votes ahead with Obama's remaining bastions having to seriously overperform for him if he's to have a shot.

Western, Vermontish, ultraliberal NH will not help Hillary. Those towns are going for Obama but not by as much as the exit polls suggested.

Thanks for the latter to DrewM.

Dartmouth, Dartmouth, Dartmouth: Hanover has yet to report. 6000 people voted where they expected only 4000. This precinct alone could wipe out Hillary's thin 3000 vote lead.

Other college towns haven't reported yet, either.

The Ace of Spades Decision Desk is considering taking back its projection at this point. Though it should be noted that Hillary has re-opened a 4% lead with almost 50% off the vote in.

I don't know what the hell I'm talking about... but given the fact that the New Hampshire population is relatively homogeneous, really, the only thing that can lose this for Hillary is big college towns coming in gangbusters for Hillary.

But I don't think that'll be huge. Does New Hampshire even have colleges? I think they have some professional deer-butcher academies. I guess those count as colleges.

So I'm calling it: Hillary gets the win.

From My Fingertips To Your Eyes: Media now "re-weighting" apparently erroneous exit polls to be closer to raw votes, now showing Hillary ahead!

How about that. My call might stand.

However, I'm cautioned that Hillary jumped out ahead early because bigger cities -- where she fares the best -- reported early, and now the more suburban/yuppie areas will start reporting and giving Obama big margins. So Hillary may have had her best showing of the night already.

On the other hand, NRO's The Corner notes that some of the "bigger small towns" have just reported in and, as expected, went for Obama by decent margins. However, Hillary's lead shrunk only from 4% to 3%. Does this mean we'll have only tiny town now reporting in, mostly? Has Obama had his mid-evening rally only to come up short?

Time will tell. But remember: I called it first.

And you want that kind of confidence/slapdashedness in a Trusted Analyst (TM).

Michael Barone... sounds like he's endorsing my projection. He hasn't given any reason whatsoever to believe there are pockets of major Obama support that can overcome Hillary's 6 point lead with a quarter of the raw vote counted.

Snark! "Hugh Hewitt," spinning Romney's second-place finish:

Clearly these results benefit one candidate and one candidate only...Mitt Romney. Anyone who doesn't understand that is not to be trusted as an analyst.

Can Hillary Win? With 15% in, she's up by 4%.

New Hampshire isn't the sort of state where there are enormous variations between urban and rural areas. I'm not sure it really has urban areas at all, and I'm pretty sure they stopped letting in black people in 1983.

So the "it's still early" thing doesn't seem to apply to New Hampshire returns like it does to Michigan/Detroit returns or Missouri/St. Louis returns. And for what it's worth, McCain's had a consistent lead of about 10 points on Romney all night, from the first percent through the fifteenth. Hillary's 4 point lead has likewise remained steady.

I think the Old Gal just might win. And that would make it a good night.

Think about it: She might be standing in the way of history, and of hope itself. Not Republicans. But Hillary.

And won't that be special?


Hillary and Obama still too close to call. There's a reversal, eh? I thought that would be the blowout.

Results coming in now.

Reverse Format: Instead of updating at the end of the post, I'll start updating at the top. (Duh, how obvious.) All old crap will be periodically buried in the extended entry portion.

Exit Polling: McCain 35, Romney 30.

Obama 39%, Clinton 34%.

Clinton's actually ahead in the current raw vote totals. No blowout for Obama; Hillary could actually win.

Both races are officially too close to call.

You know that thing the MSM does when they pretty much know who won but for reasons of self-restraint (and self-delusion) don't quite tell you who won while telling you who won?

Brit Hume had no problem just flat-out saying Barack Obama is going to win, so that one's not even close. As far as the Romney-McCain race, he's calling it "surprisingly close" but also notes 1) Independents are voting D by 59% to 41% and 2) Independents favor McCain and 3) 41% of GOP voters say Romney "shares their values" while McCain pulls in fourth (after Huckabee and Herr Doktor Paul) with 14%.

It sounds to be like they smell a possible Romney upset. Either way, it sounds close.

But... Only those 71 and over break for Romney. All other groups break for McCain.

Claim: Leaked Exits Show McCain By Six, Obama By... FOUR? K-Lo mentions these with the warning that these may be even more unreliable than the typical exits.

I'd say so. I'm thinking Obama by 8 at least, if not double-digits.

Polls: McCain "Slightly Ahead."

Update: Mark Steyn says he just talked to a "depressed" McCain guy:

Just heard from a McCain guy who sounded oddly downcast. The demand for Democratic ballots in traditionally Republican towns has got to have them wondering whether they've enough independents to win. Even if he does, it'll be the Obama victory that's the big story.

Results coming in now.

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