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October 29, 2007

Michael Yon: Afghanistan War Effort Teetering On Failure?

Instapundit has a lot of links and analysis.

Michael Yon reported on the ground from Afghanistan in 2006, and in a three-part series argued that the opium trade, and consequent empowerment of criminals and the Taliban, could possibly lose the war for us. He republishes that series and notes that his 2006 predictions seem to be coming true.

There are many indicators that the Afghan campaign is at this date a complete failure; how much has anything changed from when The Perfect Evil was published nearly a year ago? At the time of its publication, I intended it as a warning cry that action needed to be taken, and fast, before the momentum of decline reached avalanche velocity.

As with my January 2005 warnings of looming civil war in Iraq, it appears that at least a year or longer is needed before what was initially a solvable problem metastasizes into a Stage 4 disaster. If that experience is a guide, there are 3 phases between First Warning and Hail Mary. In Iraq, it took 6 to 9 months to complete the cycle of “euphemize what can’t be ignored.” The same amount of time was needed to complete the “attack the messenger” phase. Before the “fix it before it kills us” phase can commence, a full and seemingly endless cycle of “blame everyone else” needs to be completed by all the people who could have and should have done something sooner.

The war is finally turning a positive corner here in Iraq. Although some complain that the turn around is behind schedule, if Iraq continues to progress so rapidly, I will leave here in 2008, with plans to go to Afghanistan.

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posted by Ace at 04:40 PM

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