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October 01, 2007

Quiet hurricane season - global warming not cited

The Sun Sentinel ( Ft. Lauderdale paper) gives us this lengthy piece speaking of troughs, shear, and other various and sundry reasons why the hurricanes aren't forming. The problem is -- global warming isn't cited in this piece at all.

I have a confession to make -- I'm tight with global warming. He calls me all the time, usually looking to borrow money, score dope, or steal my tools, but he does at least remember phone number and confide in me about his personal issues.

Articles like this, completely shunning him, get him down. This is a serious mental health issue. The dopey idiot was near suicidal the last time he called looking to score some prozac and speed and borrow a pistol for some unspecified reason. I helped him out with the prozac and crank, but the pistol, no way.

Experts Predicted a Severe Hurricane Season This Year[Gabe]:

Back in May we were warned that this year could be in the top one-third of worst seasons ever. I especially like this examination of the climate forecasters' error rate:

The CSU forecast team has been making seasonal hurricane forecasts since 1984. If one grades their late May forecasts based on predictions of a below average, average, or above average season, they have done pretty well over the past eight seasons. Seven of their past eight forecasts have been correct. Their only failure occurred last year, when they called for a very active season, and it was a normal year with 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.

Incidentally, why did they grade the CSU team on only the past 8 seasons if they've been making forecasts since 1984?

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posted by Purp at 09:46 AM

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