Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Support


Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!



Recent Entries
Absent Friends
Bandersnatch 2024
GnuBreed 2024
Captain Hate 2023
moon_over_vermont 2023
westminsterdogshow 2023
Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022
Dave In Texas 2022
Jesse in D.C. 2022
OregonMuse 2022
redc1c4 2021
Tami 2021
Chavez the Hugo 2020
Ibguy 2020
Rickl 2019
Joffen 2014
AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me
Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups






















« Ummm... Open Thread? | Main | Cancer Cure In Two Years? Doc Thinks Some Have "Super" Cancer-Fighting Immuno Cells That Can Fight Other's Cancers Via Transfusion »
September 19, 2007

Ronald Reagan is Dead

One of the things I like best about the internet is that it allows one to determine the general makeup of a movement. If the debates between social conservatives and more moderate/libertarian Republicans on-line are any indication of the overall health of the party, then it's going to be an interesting year and a half.

The most surprising thing about this primary season, thus far, is the sustained popularity of Rudy Giuliani among GOP voters. Socially-conservative voters and opinion leaders, such as James Dobson, seem irritated by this trend and have gone out of their way to criticize the former New York City mayor. Social conservative leaders have already declared that if Giuliani is picked as the GOP candidate, they will sit out next year's election (you know, because that worked so well in 2006).

To clarify - I'm not speaking specifically of social conservatives here, but of those who did sit out the election due to frustrations with Republicans on spending, immigration, etc.) Although it should be mentioned that exit polls showed 1/3 of evangelicals voted for the Democrats in 2006 because they were frustrated with scandals. My general point is that sitting out an election and putting a party that generally agrees with you out of power is not helpful in advancing an agenda. Still, I apologize for the lack of clarity.

Before social conservatives start polarizing the party, however, they may want to look at emerging political and demographic trends and what that means for picking a candidate.

Rush Limbaugh, among others, likes to say that if the GOP would only run a candidate in the mold of Ronald Reagan, we would start winning elections again. Reagan is the first president I really remember, and he was a great man.

But he's dead, and there will never be another candidate quite like him. Reagan had a unique blend of traits - he was a man of principle who had the ability to communicate his ideas with humor and style. I would venture to say that people voted for Reagan because he made conservatism attractive, not because they were necessarily conservative themselves. He also won because he was the right man for his time. More on that later.

Reagan was helped by the fact that he ran against two of the most inept Democratic candidates this side of John Kerry - Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale. Still, Reagan ran two great campaigns and accomplished a lot in his eight years.

But he's gone, and conservatives have to let him, and the time in which he was president, go. It's also time to face a very hard fact - the country is trending toward the Democrats.


I don't think the country is necessarily getting more liberal, but that in a real sense, social conservatives right now are victims of their own success on a number of issues. The reason gun control and raising taxes are not brought up by the Dems is that the GOP has been successful in making those issues radioactive for the Democrats.

Gay rights issues have been taken off the table due to the overwhelming numbers of states that passed constitutional amendments banning same-sex marriage and abortion has largely moved from the political to the social - more of the fight is being waged by crisis pregnancy centers than by politicians, and it’s being won, albeit too slowly.

Regardless of the reasons it's happening, though, the facts are grim for Republicans: Democrats hold the majority of both houses of the legislature in 22 states; Republicans control 15 states, and 12 states are divided. There are 28 Democratic governors and 22 Republican governors. The reason they're winning is because they've been able to find candidates who reflect the times, even if those candidates aren't a perfect fit with the base.

As for the "all we have to do is nominate a true conservative" theory - tell that to Rick Santorum or the "true conservatives" currently hovering between 0 and 3% in the polls.

Now, this is not intended to be a defeatist post - only a warning one. Right now, for better or worse, our country is in the hands of the moderates. We are no longer a conservative-majority country. A lot of voters are sick of the constant bickering between the political extremes and want someone who builds a bridge between conservatives and liberals. Overall, I think the majority of voters in this country are fiscally conservative and socially moderate.

Those are our times. All the wishing in the world won't change the demographic or political trends. So the candidate or the ticket we pick has to reflect those times, and be responsive to those trends.

There are three candidates who I think would flourish in this environment - Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson. Romney, for all the accusations of flip-flopping and such, has won election in a deeply blue state and accomplished some conservative goals. That's not a bad resume.

If Thompson’s candidacy takes off, he could also do well, because I think he's more of a strict federalist than a social conservative, which I also think appeals to moderates. His campaign is new, so he's relatively untested and has yet to outline his policies, but he does have a familiar presence.

Giuliani’s continued appeal to GOP voters has to do with what I outlined above - a lot of the big battles are won and we’ve created some new third rails. Giuliani is shrewd - he's not stupid enough to back off the ground conservatives have already won, and he would take on the Democrats on issues such as the war and taxation, as we’ve seen. After eight years of the New-Tone Lovin’ Mushmeister, I think that’s attractive to a lot of GOP voters.

Each of these guys can win the general election, and each of them offers something to all members of the GOP coalition. No one member of the coalition is going to get everything it wants - we should stop pretending otherwise and vote with more...shall I say...nuance.

The coalition fractured in 1992 and again in 2006. A little flexibility from all would prevent it from shattering next year.

digg this
posted by Slublog at 04:25 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
Decaf: "Reminds of a story my brother, a historian, told m ..."

Tim "Born to Kill" Walz: "Trump is Micheal Myers !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ..."

Xipe Totec: "The most pathetic Ford evah! The ALL NEW, Piece of ..."

...: "I think it has helped them quite a bit, for decade ..."

People's Hippo Voice : "Why do people act like betting markets have some s ..."

whig: "337 Why do people act like betting markets have so ..."

ShainS -- In Trump's America, Garbage Throws YOU Out! [/b][/i][/s][/u] : "In hindsight it seems obvious. Yes, many people wa ..."

gKWVE: "[i]how did they identify male Orthodox Jews, and h ..."

Xipe Totec: "Babylon Bee: Millions of garbage bags seen lining ..."

ChrisW: "It's like when the media told us that football cro ..."

18-1: "[i]In the 80s and 90s he was going off on Japan. C ..."

Obligatory Seinfeld reference : ">>>An all white fiesta? What the hell is that? ..."

Recent Entries
Search


Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64