The Most Important Story of the Week? [someone]

The Petraeus kabuki was important, but I think predetermined. Bush had won this crucial round weeks ago, and Democrats knew it.

But this story from a few days ago is news of the biggest sort. German cold feet and economic self-interest may have forced us to the next phase of the Iranian conflict.

Germany — a pivotal player among three European nations to rein in Iran's nuclear program over the last two-and-a-half years through a mixture of diplomacy and sanctions supported by the United States — notified its allies last week that the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel refuses to support the imposition of any further sanctions against Iran that could be imposed by the U.N. Security Council.

The Germans voiced concern about the damaging effects any further sanctions on Iran would have on the German economy — and also, according to diplomats from other countries, gave the distinct impression that they would privately welcome, while publicly protesting, an American bombing campaign against Iran's nuclear facilities.

Even State seems to think the diplomatic path, pursued by Bush (though distressingly slowly) in the last few years, is toast:

The announcement was made at a meeting in Berlin that brought German officials together with Iran desk officers from the five member states of the Security Council. It stunned the room, according to one of several Bush administration and foreign government sources who spoke to FOX News, and left most Bush administration principals concluding that sanctions are dead.

Political and military officers, as well as weapons of mass destruction specialists at the State Department, are now advising Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that the diplomatic approach favored by Burns has failed and the administration must actively prepare for military intervention of some kind.

All involved are still talking like things are the same, but the German wobble has in fact been reflected in official statements. (Bizarrely, the French are pretty gung ho on the new sanctions thing.) If this German turn is as permanent and deep as the FoxNews article suggests, the storm will soon be upon us.

Probably unrelated, but interesting -- the guy who talked recently about some huge bombing plan we have for Iran seems to be a Beauchamp.

posted by xgenghisx at 02:20 PM

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