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August 02, 2007

Democrats Could Swing For Rudy

So says a Gallup poll.

I know, I know -- that's because he is a Democrat, some may carp. I think that's a bad rap, but I can see the reason for suspicion.

Democrats have more confidence in opposing-party candidates than do Republicans.

The biggest difference is between Clinton and Giuliani. In the starkest case, just 15% of Republicans like Clinton dealing with Iraq, while 41% of Democrats trust Giuliani.

Gallup editor Frank Newport said he suspected Giuliani's negatives would rise to look more like Clinton's as the campaign wears on. But the ex-mayor's broader appeal also could spell trouble for her.

"Wait till October and I think you'll find that ... the Republican nominee will have similar unfavorables," he said. "If not, then ... the Republican is going to sail easily to the election."

Overall, Republicans get the edge on security, with 55% of Americans trusting Giuliani and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) to deal with Iraq, even though both oppose the popular push to end the war soon.

As many have pointed out by now -- if the GOP now has so little credibility on Iraq and terrorism, why do GOP candidates continue to lead on that issue?

Granted, it's not as big of a margin as we're accustomed to. But rumors of the death of the GOP advantage on national security have been greatly exaggerated.

I'm pushing Rudy a little more again now because I think it's likelier he'll actually be the nominee, and I'd sort of like the GOP to actually be behind him should that happen. Not that Fred isn't a strong contender. Just that I expected Rudy to collapse after his conservative-angering positioning and the Thompson surge. As he's not collapsing, and Thompson isn't surging anymore (gaining support, sure, but not surging like he was), I think conservatives have to re-think Giuliani. Not as a first choice, necessarily, but just re-think whether he's an acceptable choice.

Nation Writer Declares: Giuliani Would Be Worse Than Bush! Now that's what I call an endorsement!

He does piss the right people off.

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posted by Ace at 11:17 AM

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