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November 05, 2006

Gallup Poll Out: 23 Point Dem Lead A Month Ago, 13 Point Lead Two Weeks Ago, And Now: Seven Points

Gallup says that's "still strong," which it it is, I guess, but just on the edge of strong.

Call it moderately strong. Or maybe strongish.

So we have three recent polls confirming that the national generic ballot has shrunk from the mid-teens to either 4, or 6, or 7. From a commanding lead -- a daunting lead, a dire lead -- to a mere edge.

"Based on history, a 7-point lead among likely voters still suggest Democrats will take enough votes to win a majority of seats in the House," says Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll. What gives some analysts pause, however, is the sophisticated redistricting over the past decade that has made most congressional districts less competitive.

What's more, President Bush's last-ditch push for votes and Sen. John Kerry's comments that seemed to denigrate the education level of U.S. forces in Iraq have helped energize GOP voters. A Democratic advantage of 23 percentage points a month ago and 13 points two weeks ago is now down to 7.

A Pew Research Center survey released Sunday also showed that an 11-point edge for Democrats on the congressional ballot two weeks ago had narrowed to 4 points among likely voters. "It's gone from a slam-dunk for Democrats to take the House to a pretty good chance," says Andy Kohut, director of the center.

Gallup says that its own poll in 1994 showed the same reading -- 51-44, but the other way around (in favor of Republicans).

But then, poll results consistently underpredict Republican turnout.

A.J. Strata notes that Gallup also had the Dems up in this poll in 2002 and 2004, and we all know how that turned out.

Add 3-4 points to the Republicans' poll numbers in a midterm to guestimate actual votes.

Thanks to Larwyn.


Trend Or Just Plain Ol' Cherry Pickin': I'll say trend. Geraghty notes there's a lot of good news for a lot of formerly shaky Republcians lately.

In the "but that's what you'd expect them to say" category, Jim Talent's people say their internal polls look "fantastic." Still, down only 1 point to McCaskill.

It will depend, as someone said, on how animated the dead are to vote. Necro-Americans go overwhelmingly for the Democrats.

Because, you know, when you're dead, you just don't give a shit about taxes.


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posted by Ace at 10:40 PM

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