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November 05, 2006

Shock: Latest Poll Puts Left-For-Dead Chafee Up By One

On one hand, it's another unexpected possible Republican retention.

On the other hand, it's Lincoln Friggin' Chafee.

On the Zaphod Beeblebrox third hand, if ultra-Democratic Rhode Island is willing to keep a Republican incumbent, maybe purple Pennsylvania might wind up supporting Rick Santorum.

On the fourth hand, look, this was counted as a gimme Democratic pick-up.

The races in which the polling is most accurate -- Senate races -- keep showing formerly left-for-dead candidates (Burns, Steele, Chafee) now coming back to tie or slightly edge their Democratic opponents. In the past weeks, the Senate race has gone from assuming Montana and Rhode Island and Maryland would fall to the Democrats, and wondering if the Republicans could hold MO, TN, and VA, to being fairly confident the Republicans would hold TN, and now wondering if the Democrats can actually manage to take MT and RI.

Their gimme pick-ups have become toss-ups, and their sure thing in Maryland has become a toss-up/lean R net pick-up.

This will make Chuckie Schumer cry.

That alone is reason to be grateful for a Chafee victory.

But if Senate races are firming in favor of Republicans, is it really terribly likely House races are going the opposite direction?

Trend Watch: Latest poll shows Kean only trailing by three. Again, striking distance.

These could be outliers, of course. They disagree with previous polls.

But the new Kean and Chafee poll seem to agree with each other, as well as with the fresh WaPo & Pew generics.

Not So Much Of A Trend... Checking the other contested Senate races, there doesn't seem to be a late firming of support for Republican candidates. In some cases, sure. In other cases, not so much.

Santorum just had one of his worst polls ever, for example, down 13 to Empty Suit.

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posted by Ace at 09:36 PM

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