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November 05, 2006

Late Poll Shows Huge Shift In Generic Ballot Question

Fluke? Outlier? Or the real November surprise-- people getting more serious as the elections approach?

A WaPo/ABCNews Poll:

Bush job approval: 43%, up from 40 (Registered Voters)

Generic Likely Voter, Dem +6 (down from Dem +14)

Right Track/Wrong Track (RV): 39/59, up from 32/66

Who do you trust on Iraq (RV)? Dem 42, Rep 42, up from Dem 48, Rep 40

AJ Strata and Decision '08 have more.

Also very big: Rumors are swirling that ultraliberal Justice Stevens will announce his retirement this year due to failing health. Supposedly Chuck Schumer has gotten a commitment from Casey to fillibuster conservative replacements. And Ford, Webb, and Tester won't rule that move out.


Rumors, but the guy does have to retire eventually. He's four hundred thirty six years old. He attended Yoda's bar mitzvah.

Jim Geraghty... has been covering the polls and such really well, and he's been far, far more optimistic than most pundits or bloggers.

Of course he's all over the latest poll.

Little teaser for that link:

Guess what the final WaPo/ABCNews poll showed on the generic ballot question in 1994, when Republicans swept into Congressional power?

If he turns out right, I know a lot of people are going to be buying his book (Voting to Kill: How 9/11 Launched a New Era In Republican Leadership), and a lot of those new readers are going to be Democrats trying to figure out how the hell it all went so terribly wrong.

Bad news... From Rasmussen, showing Democrats' advantage in party affiliation peaking, as they say, at just the right time.

At a three month high -- six points higher than the GOP.

And Rasmussen at least got it close to right in 2004 (having Dems ahead by 1).

Trying to put lipstick on this pig... well, it's adults, not likely voters, and further, when one party's being perceived as being in bad shape Dem-leaning "independents" may feel more comfortable about declaring themselves Democrats (which they are, really, anyway), while Republican-leaning moderates shun identifying themsleves as Republicans (but will still, mostly, pull the lever for Republicans).


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posted by Ace at 02:09 AM

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