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Okay... | Main | Tom Bevan On The PJM Panel
September 27, 2006

New Osama Tapes Coming?

Will they provide proof of life, or will they simply be tapes demonstrating no firm evidence of their creation date?

Every magician relies on the trick of "multiple outs." Let's say the card you pick is the Jack of Diamonds. You show it to the audience, put it back into the deck. Now you reveal to him the card you picked was the Jack of Diamonds.

The magician produces the Jack of Diamonds from a pocket.

Magic? No. The guy has all 52 cards of the deck in various pockets in his suit. Had you picked the eight of spades, he'd have just reached into a different pocket and produced that card.

Osama makes/made a lot of tapes. If there is a new tape, I'll be listening for the possibility of multiple outs. For example, he knew of the SkyBomb plan quite a long time ago. It is no difficult trick to produce one tape exalting the SkyBombers for their success and another tape celebrating their failed attempt.

And, if he's dead -- or gravely ill, and not suitable for videotaping -- it's not hard to get the right pre-recorded tape to Al Jazeera.

The simple fact that Osama may vaguely reference a recent incident -- which would have been known to him long ago -- and correctly (though vaguely) notes the outcome of the event is not quite proof he's alive.

Sound farfetched? Tell that to Queen. As his death approached, Freddie Mercury recorded dozens of demo tracks of his (weakening) vocals for new songs he wrote in a hurry, so as to make sure his longtime bandmates would have at least one or two albums' worth of Queen songs with his voice, if they so chose.


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