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August 11, 2006

Olmert Will Accept & Recommend Cease Fire

Many will object to this, but I think it's wise.

First of all, Israel, more than anyone else, knows how difficult it will be for them to conquer and occupy all of southern Lebanon.

Second, while the odds of the 15,000 Lebanese troops really cracking down on Hezbollah aren't high, there is still a chance this could work, and it's worth trying. If the Israelis can get the Lebanse to do the job, that's better for the Israelis. And the Lebanese, too. Previously, the Lebanese would not act against Hezbollah, as they feared them. Well, now they fear the Israelis too. They no longer have the option of simply letting Hezbollah run wild in the south-- or at least that is no longer a low-cost option. Now it comes at a stiff price, and the new math of the situation may inspire the Lebanese to be tougher with the other invading army in their country.

Third, if nothing else, this buys goodwill. Oh, I know it doesn't really; the Arabs and French and Europeans will continue hating Israel no matter what. Still, if the Lebanese are not able to stop Hezbollah, Israel can always invade and occupy later. And then they can say, "We tried it your way. Your way failed."

I realize it's a little weird at this point to continue asking Israel to keep making futile gestures to the Arab/Muslim world that are never reciprocated. Still -- why not try it? It's not as if the IDF is entrenched and that a withdrawal will cost them tactically. They can always do this again later.

If the threat of military force achieves the goals of the actual use of military force, obviously it's more cost-efficient to use the threat.

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posted by Ace at 05:29 PM

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