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December 23, 2005
Can Blogosphere Beat The Mullahs?Thanks to Allah for this. With almost all Iran’s reformist newspapers closed down and many editors imprisoned, blogs offer an opportunity for dissent, discussion and dissemination of ideas that is not available in any other forum. There is wistful yearning in many Iranian blogs, and a persistent vein of anger: “I keep a weblog so that I can breath in this suffocating air,” writes one blogger. “I write so as not be lost in despair.” Blogs by Muslim women are particularly moving in their bitter portrayal of life behind the veil. I wonder what they'll do when they realize they can have that freedom they so savor in the real world, as well as on the internet. I don't think it's absurdly unlikely that Weblogistan can defeat Mullahistan. A thriving alternative media can set off a preference cascade, in which people stop falsifying their preferences (because they believe they're expected to or compelled to) and express their true preferences. And the more repressive a society is, the more effective an alternative media can be in bringing down the government. An elite can rule against the wishes of the majority of the popuation only so long as the majority of the population doesn't realize it's actually the majority. After I'd written that, Strange Women Lying in Ponds wrote me about Natan Sharansky's take: In his book, "The Case for Democracy," Natan Sharansky writes that there are three types of people in any "fear society" -- what he calls "true believers," "dissidents," and "double-thinkers." It is always reasonably simple to discern who the dissidents are, but it is nigh impossible, especially for an outsider, to discern the difference between the true believers and the double-thinkers. But his theory is that the vast majority of people in a fear society are double-thinkers, and will openly express their preference once they feel it's safe to do so.Without doubt most Muslim nations are "fear societies." We can't know yet the ratio of true believers to double-thinkers, but maybe an underground media can encourage the double-thinkers to stop double-thinking. | Recent Comments
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