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May 23, 2005

Filibuster Fight or Shadow-Boxing?

There may or may not be a filibuster fight.

For one thing, there are GOP wobblers like Mike DeWine (also of Ohio... geeze!) and Lindsay Graham, in addition to the wobblers we already figured on.

Hit that link to find the link for contacting these dummies.

Kausfiles engages in one of his specialties-- making a point that no one else is making largely because it seems kinda goofy and dumb.

He suggests that Democrats don't want to have this fight now, as the public isn't really paying attention -- who cares about the Appeals Courts? -- and should have the fight later when the public is focused on the issue (i.e., for a Supreme Court nominee). Therefore, he suggests, there will be no GOP victory, because if the GOP has the votes, the Democrats will stop filibustering, denying the GOP the opportunity to end the filibuster. (And if the GOP doesn't have the votes, they won't call for a vote, of course.)

He thinks the GOP has its best chance of winning this fight now, and the Dems have the best chance of winning it later. Ergo, the Dems will avoid having the actual confrontation, at least if they're going to lose.

I think the odds of the Democrats simply stopping filibusters in order to keep the possibility of filibusters open in the future is unlikely... sure, some centrists may jump ship for this reason, I suppose, but then, the Democratic Party has been claiming for years these judges are right wing ideological extremists who will destroy this country. It's sort of hard to back away from that kind of vitriol and say, "Well, maybe they're not so bad after all."

A lot of Democratic fund-raising is based on keeping these Konservative Kabalist Krazies off the bench.

The other thing he mentions -- that the GOP won't call for a vote if they don't have the votes -- is pretty obvious, and is, alas, as I fear it will actually unfold. I think the GOP leadership is bluffing-- they don't have the votes, they probably only have 48 or even 47, and they're hoping to extract a decent compromise by pretending they have 50.

But hope springs eternal, obviously.

Kaus Right, Me Wrong? Update: Apparently it's a very live possibility that some Democrats may break ranks to vote for cloture in order to stave off a confrontation on the nuclear option. It even has a name-- the "Nelson Option," after Democratic Senator Nelson of Florida.

Further, Mort Kondracke and Charles Krauthammer say Frist has the votes, either 50 or 51. Some chick from NPR, I think, only cautions "that may not be a done deal."

This from Brit Hume, of course.

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posted by Ace at 06:02 PM

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