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Excitable Andy Cautions NRO to "Chill" | Main | Early Exit Polls in 2000 had many omissions and contained much that was apocryphal, or at least wildly inaccurate
November 02, 2004

Big Bias Towards Women in Early Voting/Exit Polling?

"the sampling on the midday numbers was 59/41 women to men. you are dealing with a known gender gap of like 9 pts. just fyi."

So says Temple of Jennifer, and she's never lied to me before.

But wouldn't they attempt to adjust for such a split? If those are the raw numbers, and Kerry's only slightly ahead, wouldn't that be very bad news for Kerry and very good news for Bush?

More: Not Weighted Yet: Jay Cost/The Horserace Blog says these early numbers are not weighted, adjusted, nor "scrubbed", and he too has never lied to me before.

Thanks to, um, "someone."

Okay, Okay, I'll Stop Being Such a Defeatist Ninny: Blue Devils tells me to chill, too: "As I said earlier, don't pull an "Andrew." Bush will stay take over 51% of the popular vote and at least 285 EC votes."

He notes that Drudge has now changed his headline, and suggests that the MSM-DNC continuum deliberately let out these misleading numbers to depress Republican voting.

Sounds plausible to me.

Hey-- seems to me they called Florida for Kerry at 7:50 last time around, too.

And Hugh Hewitt Too: A post with a big, friendly "Don't Panic" on the cover. Hugh Hewitt, too, has never lied to me.

On the other hand, he's never invited me on his radio show, either. So, I'm torn.

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posted by Ace at 03:22 PM

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