Sponsored Content

Intermarkets' Privacy Policy

Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!

Recent Entries
Absent Friends
westminsterdogshow 2023
Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022
Dave In Texas 2022
Jesse in D.C. 2022
OregonMuse 2022
redc1c4 2021
Tami 2021
Chavez the Hugo 2020
Ibguy 2020
Rickl 2019
Joffen 2014
AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info
Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups

It's Not Just Osama: Kerry is Sadr City's Choice for President, Too! | Main | Worst. Make-out Song. Ever.
October 30, 2004

Prediction Thread

An electoral college map is here to help keep you in your prognostication.

Larry Sabato's own map and current prediction.

Make your predictions:

House GOP Gains or Losses. Currently 227-207 with 1 independent. Sabato predicts the outcome will be something like 232-235 R to 200-203 D. Note how many seats you think the GOP will pick-up or lose (+5, -3, etc.)

Senate GOP Gains or Losses. Currently 51-48+a Vermont douchebag. Recent predictions seem to call for about 3 net GOP gains in the Senate. Again, call the pick-up or loss (+2, -3).

Presidential Election: Popular vote share. Call the percent of the popular vote that Bush will receive to the nearest half-percent.

Presidential Election: Electoral Share. Call the number of electors you think Bush will win.

Presidential Election: Time of Declaration. Call the time you think that the first of the major broadcast and cable news networks (CBS, ABC, NBC, PBS, CNN, MSNBC (sorta) and Fox) declare an overall winner in the contest. Be aware-- they're not going to do so very quickly this time around.

Presidential Election: Swing States! Call who will win the following states: OH, FL, MI, MN, IA, WI, PA, CO, NJ, HI, NM, NH.

Presidential Election: Tiebreaking Uncategorizable Prediction! Make your bold call of an interesting happening that will occur on Election Night. Will James Carville put another trash can on his head? Will Peter Jennings announce that "Tonight the nation had a temper-tantrum"? Will Dan Rather break down and demand, "What the fuck are you people-- morons?" Humorous and serious predictions welcome.

Overall winner decided by me.

Prize? You get to lead the line when we do a mass "Victory Lap" through the comments of the blogosphere. Plus the usual dumb non-prizes.

Clarification: Cedarford reminds me that Louisiana probably isn't electing a Senator on Nov. 2; it's probably just forwarding two men to a runoff to take place in December. This sort of screws everything up, because, of course, I want to judge a winner shortly after the election, if not that night.

So, because the Republican in LA is favored to win, I'm going to assume that Vitter will win so long as he makes it at least to the run-off (which he will). This is a sorta goofy workaround, since the person who predicts "right" by my rule may turn out to be wrong, but I don't know how else to handle it, given that people have already made predictions, and I don't want everyone to modify their predictions based on this wrinkle.

So I guess we'll just take Vitter as an in-the-bag pick-up for the Republicans, at least as far as these predictions, even though he's really not.

Another clarification: When picking the time of declaration, include a time zone, or else I'll just assume you mean Eastern time. Eastern Standard or Eastern Daylight, whatever the hell we'll be in on Nov. 2. I can never keep that straight.

Yes, very presumptuous of me and all. Very East-Coast-Centric. But we need a default. We can't have this prediction contest descending into a two-week disputed affair with the threat of outright political violence.

Help a Blogger Out: Try to respond to the questions specifically posed, or else it's going to be difficult for me to include you as a candidate for the actual winner. Like, don't just tell me which states Kerry will win. Tell me which of the states I asked about he'll win.

And yeah-- I should have asked about Oregon. It slipped my mind.

digg this
posted by Ace at 08:19 PM

| Access Comments

Recent Comments
Don Black: ">Everyone's on the front page slamming the F5 key. ..."

Tom Servo: "200 Nice that SJLee lost bet she's pissed no gra ..."

Drive By : "Not a lot of votes but she didn’t just lose, ..."

Don Black: "Nice that SJLee lost bet she's pissed no graft ..."

Don Black: "LSU's Jayden Daniels wins Heisman Trophy ..."

Catch Thirty-Thr33: "Apparently they have a jungle primary system, beca ..."

mnw: "Apathy produced the least-bad outcome in Houston t ..."

Thomas Bender: "@195 >>And that is our problem. Apathy. Appa ..."

Catch Thirty-Thr33: "193 I see that the vote total for Houston mayor ri ..."

Tom Servo: "193 I see that the vote total for Houston mayor ri ..."

Drive By : "I see that the vote total for Houston mayor right ..."

Robert: "Everyone's on the front page slamming the F5 key. ..."

Recent Entries

Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64