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October 07, 2004

Mainstream Media Raises Expectations on Jobs Reports

To be fair, the Bush Administration has raised expectations itself. Still, I find it curious that the media likes to play up expectations of a good jobs report, and yet doesn't seem eager to report actual good jobs reports. They had a lot to say about the lackluster summer jobs numbers, and yet had little remark about the big numbers posted in late winter and early spring.

Interesting points, with a cute little button:

The precise relationship between pocketbook issues and presidential elections is impossible to pin down, but that does not stop economists from trying. A well-known model developed by Yale economist Ray Fair, based largely on economic growth and inflation figures, projects that Bush will win 59 percent of the two-party vote.

A similar model unveiled this week by Patrick Anderson of Anderson Economic Group added a variable for unemployment and still concluded that Bush would win, but only by 0.2 to 1 percent.

“(Bush) can say the economy is growing, income is growing, the economy is creating jobs, unemployment is falling — all these things are true,” Anderson said. “And with those conditions, the model says the incumbent should be re-elected.”

Of course it is entirely possible that the economy will not be the decisive factor in the first presidential election of the post 9/11 era.

“I think Iraq trumps all of it,” said Diffley. He called Iraq the most important “swing state” of all.


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posted by Ace at 10:46 AM

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