Swift Kick: Bush Overtakes Kerry 49-46 Among Registered Voters

Yes, among registered voters, a more liberal leaning group (usually) than likely voters. And it's an LA Times poll besides-- not exactly Republican-friendly.

Even when I first saw the first SwiftVets ad, and "predicted" that it would cost Kerry 2-4 points, I didn't entirely believe it; I was more hopeful than confident.

But the latest polls tend to show those ads were just as powerful as they first seemed:

WASHINGTON -- President Bush heads into next week's Republican national convention with voters moving slightly in his direction since July amid signs that John F. Kerry has been nicked by attacks on his service in Vietnam, a Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

...

Now the poll of course shows continued anxiousness about the Iraq War and the economy. I had to cut something from the article, though, and I figured that's just telling us what we already know.

Gallup, I believe, will also be releasing a poll either late tonight or tomorrow.

Thanks to Kirk for the tip, although Kirk doesn't understand that cowbells are for economic news.

For a good poll, I can provide only either this picture of an adorable dog snapped by da Goddess:

or this animated Robot from Lost in Space:

or this still of Tawney Kitaen humping a Jaguar in the Whitesnake video "Here I Go Again":

I would provide cowbell if it were up to me, but I've got my boss looking over my shoulder every five minutes.

Whoa, Whoa, Wait a Minute: The commenter Kerry Is Unelectable cried bullshit on an ABC/WaPo poll showing Kerry losing ground going into his convention. His theory was they were pushing the poll down for Kerry so that the convention would result in a bigger "bounce" -- but of course that bounce would be illusory. But still, it would be a good talking point in favor of Kerry.

I don't know if I buy this sort of crafty-to-the-third-power skullduggery in polling, but I suppose this poll might be goosed for Bush so that his convention will then show him "losing" support.

Update: Allah points out that it's state-by-state voting, and therfore state by state polling, that ultimately counts. I disagree-- only if one candidate fails to win the national election by 2% or less will the state-by-state outcome differ from the national-poll/national-vote outcome.

It should be noted that Bush's state-by-state position has been improving as well. See Rasmussen, for example.

Update: Not a big deal, but Rasmussen's national numbers show Bush pulling ahead now too.

Update: Frequent AoSHQ contributor Kerry is Unelectable sets a high number for Bush's convention bounce.

Isn't this the guy who's always so cautious about the expectations game? What gives, Kerry is Unelectable?

posted by Ace at 01:33 AM

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