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August 24, 2004
Our Supremely Unbiased Press, Part 6,689I don't want to oversell this the way someone oversold Reanimator to me. ("And then, and then, and then he's like totally decapitated, and he's like holding his own head, and then he holds his head by the hair up to the girl and... YOU GOTTA SEE REANIMATOR, DUDE!!! IT'S THE FUCKIN' SACK, BABY!!!) But really-- this is good stuff. Almost From Beyond good. So, some time ago, I posted the economic models created by a Yale economist named Ray C. Fair predicting a Bush victory. Well, a reporterette at the New York Times decided to interview Professor Fair. You might think that she'd ask a lot of technical but interesting questions about the model's assumptions. You'd be wrong. She decided to just argue about the models for an hour or so. Not in a technical fashion, mind you, but in a simply emotional one: She wants Kerry to win, and she's very angry that Professor Fair's models show him losing. She's further angry that his models show Kerry losing and yet the professor shared them with the public-- she fears that the models could hurt Kerry, and thus probably ought to have been suppressed. Don't believe me? Well, here's a taste: SOLOMON: In your book “Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things,” you claim that economic growth and inflation are the only variables that matter in a presidential race. Are you saying that the war in Iraq will have no influence on the election? FAIR: Historically, issues like war haven’t swamped the economics. If the equation is correctly specified, then the chances that Bush loses are very small. SOLOMON: But the country hasn’t been this polarized since the 60’s, and voters seem genuinely engaged by social issues like gay marriage and the overall question of a more just society. Ummm, they do? Such questions weigh into every election, of course, but I can't think of an election in which such questions have been less relevant. Even during the height of the Vietnam War, the social questions -- race, abortion, etc. -- were raging to be nearly the equal of the war issue. That's not the case now. This election is all about, in order 1) the War on Terrorism, 2) the economy, and 3) the War on Terrorism. I think this reporterette would do herself some good to try reporting on the world as it actually is rather than how she wishes it to be. But anyway, Prof. Fair answers: FAIR: We throw all those into what we call the error term. In the past, all that stuff that you think should count averages about 2.5 percent, and that is pretty small. SOLOMON: It saddens me that you teach this to students at Yale, who could be thinking about society in complex and meaningful ways. FAIR: I will be teaching econometrics next year to undergraduates. Econometrics is a huge deal, because it is applied to all kinds of things. SOLOMON: Yes, I know one of your studies used the econometric method to predict who is most likely to have an extramarital affair. Yes, it is indeed sad that a professor of econometrics should lower himself to teach his students econometrics, rather than something really valuable, like Our Bodies, Our Elves: Marxist Feminist Allegory in The Elfstones of Shannara. But our intrepid reporterette gets right to the heart of the matter: SOLOMON: Are you a Republican? FAIR: I can’t credibly answer that question. Using game theory in economics, you are not going to believe me when I tell you my political affiliation because I know that you know that I could be behaving strategically. If I tell you I am a Kerry supporter, how do you know that I am not lying or behaving strategically to try to put more weight on the predictions and help the Republicans? SOLOMON: I don’t want to do game theory. I just want to know if you are a Kerry supporter. FAIR: Backing away from game theory, which is kind of cute, I am a Kerry supporter. SOLOMON: I believe you entirely, although I’m a little surprised, because your predictions implicitly lend support to Bush. FAIR: I am not attempting to be an advocate for one party or another. I am attempting to be a social scientist trying to explain voting behavior. SOLOMON: But in the process you are shaping opinion. Predictions can be self-confirming, because wishy-washy voters might go with the candidate who is perceived to be more successful. Notice Solomon's agenda. She's not here to hash out if this model has been a good predictor in the past or anything like that. She's just pissed because she knows about The Bandwagon Effect, how undecideds can be swayed to vote by whoever they perceive to be the ultimate winner. If she's really upset by that, she should have a word with the editors of the New York Times, who have featured, at last count, thirty-seven bazillion front-page big-font headlines proclaiming that Bush is losing support in the country. They never report the polls prominently in which he regains support. To look just at the New York Times' front page (not a good idea for anyone interested in keeping appraised of what's happening in the world), you'd get the idea that Bush must be at negative 456% support, since the Times polls only show him dropping three or five points every month. But then, that's good shaping of public opinion, innit it? Thanks to Little Green Footballs (who has more, including the link) by way of Milty and CalGal at The Perfect World. | Recent Comments
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Braenyard - some absent friends are more equal than others: "His daddy was a pistol and he was a son of a gun. ..." Tonypete: "[/i] Good evening Italicans! ..." Commissar Hrothgar (hOUT3) ~ Next year in Corsicana - again! ~ [/i][/b][/u][/s]: "Argggh! [/i] ..." Pug Mahon, Pledge in a Beanie: "The chill I just felt was knowing that I am LAST! ..." Commissar Hrothgar (hOUT3) ~ Next year in Corsicana - again! ~ [/i][/b][/u][/s]: "Nice one TRex! ..." AlaBAMA DeButts: "Italican noods ..." JohnFNotKerry: "italics ..." mindful webworker - so they say: "Overnight thread, overnight thread Pops up when I ..." AlaBAMA DeButts: "Egads! Italicans! ..." JohnFNotKerry: "wow 5th ..." Pug Mahon, Pledge in a Beanie: " Doof! Howdy, amigo. Posted by: Notorious BFD at ..." Recent Entries
Wednesday Overnight Open Thread - December 4, 2024 [TRex]
Horse Sense Cafe Quick Hits Leftwing Media "Experts" Spin Hunter Biden's Pardon By Inventing Previous Pardons That Never Happened Assassin Guns Down the CEO of UnitedHealthcare in the Middle of the Street in Alvin Bragg's Sanctuary City for Killers, NYC Supreme Court Hears Arguments on Tennessee's Anti-Transgender-Surgery-for-Children Law; Unqualified DEI Incompetents Ketanji Brown Jackson and Sonia Sotomayor Shine In Their Stupidity Dank Brandon's Bewildered African Adventure White House Once Again Turned Into Eyebleeding Gay Meth-Hallucination Nightmare by White Trash Delaware Hillbilly Biden Clan Judge Orders Fani Willis to Disclose All Correspondence with the January 6th Committee Wednesday Morning Rant Search
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The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
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Paul Anka Haiku Contest Announcement Integrity SAT's: Entrance Exam for Paul Anka's Band AllahPundit's Paul Anka 45's Collection AnkaPundit: Paul Anka Takes Over the Site for a Weekend (Continues through to Monday's postings) George Bush Slices Don Rumsfeld Like an F*ckin' Hammer Top Top Tens
Democratic Forays into Erotica New Shows On Gore's DNC/MTV Network Nicknames for Potatoes, By People Who Really Hate Potatoes Star Wars Euphemisms for Self-Abuse Signs You're at an Iraqi "Wedding Party" Signs Your Clown Has Gone Bad Signs That You, Geroge Michael, Should Probably Just Give It Up Signs of Hip-Hop Influence on John Kerry NYT Headlines Spinning Bush's Jobs Boom Things People Are More Likely to Say Than "Did You Hear What Al Franken Said Yesterday?" Signs that Paul Krugman Has Lost His Frickin' Mind All-Time Best NBA Players, According to Senator Robert Byrd Other Bad Things About the Jews, According to the Koran Signs That David Letterman Just Doesn't Care Anymore Examples of Bob Kerrey's Insufferable Racial Jackassery Signs Andy Rooney Is Going Senile Other Judgments Dick Clarke Made About Condi Rice Based on Her Appearance Collective Names for Groups of People John Kerry's Other Vietnam Super-Pets Cool Things About the XM8 Assault Rifle Media-Approved Facts About the Democrat Spy Changes to Make Christianity More "Inclusive" Secret John Kerry Senatorial Accomplishments John Edwards Campaign Excuses John Kerry Pick-Up Lines Changes Liberal Senator George Michell Will Make at Disney Torments in Dog-Hell Greatest Hitjobs
The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny More Margaret Cho Abuse Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed" Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means Wonkette's Stand-Up Act Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report! Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet The House of Love: Paul Krugman A Michael Moore Mystery (TM) The Dowd-O-Matic! Liberal Consistency and Other Myths Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate "Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long) The Donkey ("The Raven" parody) |