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July 01, 2004

Sexy, Smokin'-Hot Models Predict Bush Win

Seriously: these mathematical models constructed by statistics and economics experts are really stunning:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Polls may show the presidential race in a dead heat, but for a small band of academics who use scientific formulas to predict elections President Bush (news - web sites) is on his way to a sizable win.

That's the conclusion of a handful of political scientists who, with mixed results, have honed the art of election forecasting by devising elaborate mathematical formulas based on key measures of the nation's economic health and the public's political views.

As Tiger Tanaka would say: Very sexiful.

Most of these academics are predicting Bush, bolstered by robust economic growth, will win between 53 and 58 percent of the votes cast for him and his Democratic opponent John Kerry (news - web sites).

What delicious little minxes these models are.

Their track record for calling election outcomes months in advance has often been surprisingly accurate. In 1988, the models projected Bush's father, former President George Bush, would win even though Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis enjoyed a double digit poll leads that summer.

And in 1996, one model came within a tenth of a percentage point of Clinton's actual vote share.

Hubba, hubba!

But as hot as they might be, these models are, as usual, sometimes pretty airheaded:


But one glaring error is what the forecasters are perhaps best remembered for: they predicted in 2000 that Democrat Al Gore (news - web sites) would win easily, pegging his total at between 53 and 60 percent of the two-party vote.

Thanks to RudeJelly, whom I imagine must know Washingtonienne.

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posted by Ace at 02:07 PM

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