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May 24, 2004

Economic Forecasters Have a Fever, and the Only Prescription is More Cowbell

At some point, one would think the liberal media will begin to feel embarassed about embargoing the news:

So far, the U.S. economy has shrugged off the surge in oil and gasoline prices. The government on Thursday probably will report the economy grew by 4.5 percent in the first quarter, up from the Commerce Department's initial estimate last month of 4.2 percent, based on the median forecast of 56 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News from April 27-30. They predicted expansion of at least 4 percent in all four quarters this year, which would bring growth for the last six quarters to the fastest rate since 1984.

Job and profit growth also have accelerated. The U.S. added more jobs in April and May than in any two months since early 2000. Earnings of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index are expected to increase 17.4 percent this year, the biggest gain since 1999, according to Thomas Financial.

Meanwhile, the right-leaning New York Sun attempts to inform the public about the booming economy in a page one story (no on-line link). They predict, perhaps over-optimistically, that the roaring economy is about to produce a seismic shift in the politics of this year's elections.

Full cowbell for adjusting the 1Q GDP upwards, sort-of just like I predicted.


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posted by Ace at 03:43 PM

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