Shock! Analysis Proves That Hamas is Faking All of Its Fake Casualty Figures

I'm stunned. Nothing makes sense any more and my tongue feels like an intruder in my mouth.

Abraham Wyner at Tablet:

The number of civilian casualties in Gaza has been at the center of international attention since the start of the war. The main source for the data has been the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, which now claims more than 30,000 dead, the majority of which it says are children and women. Recently, the Biden administration lent legitimacy to Hamas' figure.

When asked at a House Armed Services Committee hearing last week how many Palestinian women and children have been killed since Oct. 7, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the number was "over 25,000." The Pentagon quickly clarified that the secretary "was citing an estimate from the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry."

President Biden himself had earlier cited this figure, asserting that "too many, too many of the over 27,000 Palestinians killed in this conflict have been innocent civilians and children, including thousands of children." The White House also explained that the president "was referring to publicly available data about the total number of casualties."

Here's the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.

If Hamas' numbers are faked or fraudulent in some way, there may be evidence in the numbers themselves that can demonstrate it. While there is not much data available, there is a little, and it is enough: From Oct. 26 until Nov. 10, 2023, the Gaza Health Ministry released daily casualty figures that include both a total number and a specific number of women and children.

The first place to look is the reported "total" number of deaths. The graph of total deaths by date is increasing with almost metronomical linearity, as the graph in Figure 1 reveals.

It's just not possible that nearly the exact same number of people are killed every single day, whether Israel's tempo of battle is high or low.

This is just stupid Hamas propagandists literally just adding the same number every day. Well, the same number plus/minus 15%.

This regularity is almost surely not real. One would expect quite a bit of variation day to day. In fact, the daily reported casualty count over this period averages 270 plus or minus about 15%. This is strikingly little variation. There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less.

This kind of numerical evidence is a very powerful and very reliable tool. Fraudulent accounting is discovered all the time by such mathematical analysis.

Experts in forensic accounting know how much randomness and variation to expect in actually-random data. Most fraudsters do not.

Perhaps what is happening is the Gaza ministry is releasing fake daily numbers that vary too little because they do not have a clear understanding of the behavior of naturally occurring numbers. Unfortunately, verified control data is not available to formally test this conclusion, but the details of the daily counts render the numbers suspicious.

Another way in which the data is exposed as fake and simply made up is the lack of correlation between children allegedly killed and women allegedly killed.

As children are usually in the company of women, a bomb that hits a residential building and kills a certain number of women should also kill a certain number of children. And vice-versa.

Hamas is making up these numbers, too, and just randomly claiming x number of women were killed and y number of children, without the expected correlation between these numbers that genuine casualty data would show.

[O]n the days with many women casualties there should be large numbers of children casualties, and on the days when just a few women are reported to have been killed, just a few children should be reported. This relationship can be measured and quantified by the R-square (R2 ) statistic that measures how correlated the daily casualty count for women is with the daily casualty count for children. If the numbers were real, we would expect R2 to be substantively larger than 0, tending closer to 1.0. But R2 is .017 which is statistically and substantively not different from 0.

In the below graph, real casualty data would tend to produce data points close to the trendline in blue, in which the number of women killed is strongly correlated with the number of children killed.

Instead, the data points are all over the plot -- Hamas is just basically throwing darts at a dartboard and making these numbers up:

Read the article for more. There's another telltale sign of fabrication -- the number of men killed should also correlate with the number of women killed, because, well, men and women tend to live together or near each other so a bomb that kills one sex should kill the other sex in roughly equal numbers.

But Hamas shows what fuck-ups they are by constantly making most casualties women and consequently reducing the number of male casualties to close to zero. It makes the female casualties look truly devastating -- and truly F A K E.

Apparently Israeli bombs are sex-segregated and only blow up women and children.

But sure, keep on quoting fake Hamas Health Ministry data, Gaslight Media and Enemy of the People Regime.

Meanwhile: Joe Biden's multiple strokes have apparently transferred his limited intelligence into John Fetterman. Apparently their strokes act as a system.

The White House is denying it met with Hamas front group CAIR:

Gabby Deutch @GSDeutch

New: WH spox @AndrewJBates46 told me that CAIR was *not* invited to WH mtgs in Chicago w/ Muslim Americans--& that the group is NEVER invited to WH mtgs

His comments follow Politico report today quoting CAIR's Chicago director re: WH outreach to Palestinian & Arab communities...

Want to guess what the truth is...?

Thanks to Deb Heine.

posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 02:00 PM

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