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June 23, 2022

Biden Tidings: New York Federal Bank Models Project Recession Through 2022 and 2023; Very Low Growth in 2024


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FED'S POWELL: IN HINDSIGHT, INFLATION WAS NOT TRANSITORY.

Via Hands and banana Dream.

krugmanforthewin.jpg

A caveat: these models do not constitute the official projection of the New York Fed. They're mathematical models without human adjustment. Further, this type of model hasn't been very accurate in the past.

But then again, no economic models are very accurate as far as predicting the future.

Still, this is grim:

Economists are tripping over themselves to forecast the probability of a recession as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates and inflation sticks around at sky-high levels.

One of the bleakest forecasts, however, comes from the New York Fed.

First, the caveat. This is not the official forecast from the regional central bank, which gets used in the Fed's summary of economic projections. Instead, it's a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. That's a mouthful, but it's a standard way that economists make predictions. A review from a decade ago says these models perform poorly, but other forecasts do equally poorly, which is probably a good way to frame any economist prediction more than three months into the future.


Anyway, onto the grim prediction. This New York Fed model says the U.S. economy will contract this year, as well as next. The New York Fed model's prediction of a contraction by 0.6% this year, and another 0.5% next year, compares with the Fed's median forecast for 1.7% growth this year and next.

The New York Fed model assigns an 80% probability to a hard landing, which it defines as at least one quarter out of the next ten in which the four-quarter GDP growth dips below 1%. And it expects inflation a full percentage point higher this year than the official Fed forecast.

grimtidings.jfif


America is back &c. The Adults are back et seq.


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posted by Ace at 02:43 PM

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