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October 08, 2010

Gallup: A Clear Majority of Likely Voters Self-Identify As Conservative

54%. And 27% moderate, 18% liberal.

There are several caveats here.

"Moderates?" Often are not. They tend to be liberal-ish people who "don't like labels" or who have internalized the idea that liberalism is bad, even as they continue to believe in it. (They just don't call it "liberalism" -- they call it common-sense centrism.)

Even "Conservatives," as in "conservative Democrat," are actually more liberal than a "liberal Republican."

Plus, even at 54%, bear in mind we're going to have a lot of conservatives voting big in some areas, but you can only win the same district once. That is, if we win huge in TX-5 (or wherever) that doesn't help us in MA-6, where it's going to be a lot dicier.

And these numbers may actually cast doubt on that last poll. Remember their eyepopping poll showing Republicans with +13 or even +18 advantage based on likely turnout models? Well this I'm pretty sure is the cross-tab report to that, so if that first poll was too good for us, these numbers are similarly too good for us.

There are going to be good polls and bad polls; you're never as good as you look like when you're winning and you're never as bad as you look like when you're losing.

Room for optimism, but as Winston Wolf's maternal grandfather, corn farmer Walter Wolf, sagely observed: Gentlemen, let's not start shucking eachother's cobs just yet.

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posted by Ace at 05:48 PM

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