Stop Me If You've Heard This One Before: Second Quarter Real GDP Growth Revised Upwards by 0.7%

Why is it that estimated growth rates always have to be revised downwards for Democrats and upwards for Republicans?

Because the left-wing bureaucrats consistently overestimate growth under Democrats and underestimate it under Republicans.

Note that it's the first estimate that gets all the press. The revision only gets noticed by economists and traders.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2% in the second quarter of 2026, according to a U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released Wednesday.

In the first quarter, real GDP increased, at a revised rate of 2.5%.

The report released Monday, for April, May, and June, is an estimate, the third for the quarter.

Real GDP was revised up 0.7% point from the second estimate, "primarily reflecting upward revisions to investment, consumer spending and government spending," the Commerce Department's bureau also said.

Inflation came in -- say it with me -- unexpectedly low.

The key Commerce Department report released Wednesday shows consumer prices in August increased 0.3% from the previous month, less than Wall Street expected.

The report, the personal consumption expenditures price index, is the primary inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, which sets interest rates based on inflation.

Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2%.

The seasonally adjusted 0.3% increase for the month, puts the 12-month gain at 3.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for increases of 0.3% and 3.7% respectively, according to CBNC.com.

Instapundit has some Russian Conspiracy Theory that the media manipulates economic news to favor politicians they vote for and to disfavor the politicians they hate.

What an absurd and Racist theory.

It is the best of economies, it is the worst of economies.

But which?

It really is a tale of two economies, depending on who you ask.

On the one hand, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that the US economy has entered an "acceleration phase": Despite rising interest rates, the markets aren't tanking as many experts predicted.

On the other, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries railed just days before that President Donald Trump has delivered a "Rotten Age," with an economy that's "failing everyday Americans" -- and Americans seem to agree, with 63% disapproving of Trump's economic policies, per the RealClear Politics polling average.

By the numbers, Bessent has a strong case.

US jobless claims tumbled last week to levels not seen in years, retail sales are up and manufacturing is booming.

Importantly, the workforce participation rate is climbing -- so the low unemployment numbers aren't just the result of people giving up on the job search altogether.

As columnist Daniel McCarthy notes, "Establishment economists predicted none of this."

Well, they're usually wrong, it seems.

Trump's combination of lighter regulation, tighter restrictions on illegal immigration and protectionist tariffs is translating into more jobs here at home as businesses expand.

...

It's an old playbook, one that Bill Clinton's pollster Mark Penn wielded to defeat President George H.W. Bush in 1992.

The economy had actually recovered from a brief recession in 1991, but voters thought otherwise -- because the media told them so.

"There is often a huge disconnect between belief about the economy and the true economic state of affairs," Penn wrote in his 2007 book "Microtrends."

"Until the statistics are actually published, people tend to assess the economy through the eyes of the national media."

During the 1992 election, Clinton repeatedly told us we were experiencing the worst economy in 50 years.

The press echoed that message dutifully.

But as Penn recounted with glee, "The statistics that came out after the election showed that the period leading up to November had actually been a period of record growth."

Whether this is the best of economies, the worst of economies, or something in between, you can bet that for the next month-plus we'll be told it's the worst.

We always are, when the Republicans are in charge.

Although I am pessimistic about the midterms, NeverTrump liberal Frank Luntz of all people says that
the GOP hasn't lost yet.

His polling shows a rough cycle for both parties, but the details favor the GOP. Trump and Republicans aren't polling well, yet Democrats are doing even worse, and they've dug themselves deeper into their media bubbles. Even the turnout advantage Democrats are banking on turns out to be pretty thin.

"I'm looking at a turnout differential that advantages the Democrats by a couple of points, which means that there are more people who oppose Donald Trump, who are planning to vote, than those who support him," Luntz told CNN This Morning on Monday. "There's always been a historical advantage to the party out of power in the midterms, particularly in the first midterms."

A couple of points? That's it?

The party out of power usually walks into its first midterm with the wind at its back, and Democrats can only manage a two-point edge.

Luntz also explained why that edge is so fragile.

Trump's voters show up when he's on the ballot and stay home when he isn't, which makes his absence in November a bigger problem for Republicans than his approval ratings.

"When he is on the ballot, his people come out. They participate," he said. "They did in the on-year elections, 2016 and 2024. And they did not, in 2018. And they did not as much, even when Joe Biden was the president in 2020, for the 2022 election."

The fix is obvious, and Trump is already working on it. Luntz said the whole map hinges on whether the president can get those voters engaged again, starting with the biggest prize.

"But he needs his people to vote in a place like Texas," Luntz continued. "If the Trump voters participate, the Republican nominee in Texas is elected. If the Trump voters don't participate, the Democrats will achieve an upset. It's the same thing in states as small as Iowa, Alaska. It even matters in a state like Ohio."

Turnout is a big problem. I see a lot of conservatives trying to rally the base into turning out.

17 months in a row of zero illegal crossings The best crime numbers in history, even after Democrats let in 25 million people The most jobs in the history of the United States Murders are lower than at any time since 1900 New plants are being built every day, like today's $18B investment $21 TRILLION being invested in America, the most in history The war will be won very soon Gas prices will come tumbling down

🚨 WOW! President Trump was just asked what his midterm message is for millions of Americans to vote red, and he dropped RAPID FIRE truth nukes to the Fake News in the Oval Office:

- 17 months in a row of ZERO illegal crossings
- The best crime numbers in history, even after… pic.twitter.com/0todedjOiS

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 28, 2026

posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 02:32 PM

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