Poll Claims That Le Pen Would Win the Second Round of the Presidential Election Against All Likely Opponents

The French vote in two "tours," or turns, the first featuring all qualified candidates, the second being a runoff of the top two vote finishers (and sometimes three, I don't know what the cutoff is, maybe if you get more than 25% you go to the runoff).

The bane of National Rally has been this second tour. In the second tour, everyone, including the supposedly right-leaning Republicains, votes for whoever is running against the NR candidate, even if it's a communist.

So we've seen repeated cases of NR candidates being in first place in the first tour and then being defeated in the second.

A new poll claims that Marine Le Pen would actually command a majority of votes in a second tour run-off against her likely opponents.

According to a survey by Toluna-Harris, a market research firm, Le Pen is projected to win the second round of the 2027 presidential election against all likely opponents.

...

According to the survey, Le Pen is favored over the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon (68 percent versus 32 percent). Le Pen is also favored over so-called centrists Édouard Philippe (55 percent versus 45 percent) and Gabriel Attal (57 percent versus 43 percent).

The poll finds she would be the top vote-getter in the first tour, which isn't surprising, as NR candidates often are. It's the second tour that gets them.

This seems to confirm a poll from June, which also sees Le Pen winning the second tour -- although just barely so, if she's competing against a "centrist" candidate.

Back in July, a survey conducted by the French Institute of Public Opinion (IFOP) showed Le Pen beating Attal (54 percent vs 46 percent), Philippe (55 percent vs 45 percent), and Mélenchon (70 percent vs 30 percent) in the second round. The same survey also showed that Le Pen would receive roughly a third of the vote (36 percent). If she faces a centrist candidate in the second round, the survey projected that Le Pen would unite 50 percent of the right-leaning vote. If up against Mélenchon, Le Pen would unite 90 percent of the right-leaning vote.

I don't understand why they're saying she would "unite 50 percent of the right-leaning vote." I'm assuming that is mis-worded and they mean she would unite enough of the right-leaning vote to secure 50% of all votes.

Correction: No I guess I'm wrong, because they say she'd get 90% of the "right-leaning vote" against the communist Melanchon. But then I don't know why this is worth mentioning: Getting 50% of the "right leaning" vote is 1, not all that hard, and 2, something that happens as you lose the election, because getting 50% of the right-leaning vote would mean that you're getting around 20-30% of the total vote.

I guess she is getting a fair amount of left-leaning voters, too. Yes, I keep forgetting, Le Pen is attempting to forge an anti-immigrant/socialist alliance. She's not really "right" by any standard, except as far as sovereignty.

Meanwhile, the Socialists of Spain are demanding that the EU give it welfare money to pay for the 70,000 invaders they let into Ceuta.

Spain has formally requested emergency funding from the European Union to address the migration situation in its North African enclave of Ceuta, weeks after tens of thousands of people surged across the border from Morocco.

The European Commission said on Tuesday that it is closely monitoring the situation and remained "fully engaged at all levels" to ensure the security of the EU's external borders.

posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 04:53 PM

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