CIA Report: Air Power Alone Can't Win Wars

I've been saying this since day one.

Since WWII, air power theorists have promised a victory from the skies alone. It's never happened. (You can say "Japan" but that was an atomic bomb, and there was an ongoing ground and sea war going on at the same time, and the promise of a land invasion of the home islands.)

Technology is always advancing so there is often a plausible argument for why a victory through the skies is possible now -- the B-52 can drop more bombs than any aircraft ever imagined, cruise missiles can hit a specific window of a building, etc. -- but it's never once panned out.

Ukraine is proving you can fight the Russian army and navy to a standstill -- or better -- with air power, specifically, drone power. But drones are fairly short-range. I'd love a drone invasion of Iran, but those drones would have to be launched and serviced from inside Iran, or at least right on the border.

So what is the endgame here? I don't think it's going to be an actual victory.

It might just be the unsatisfying situation after the Gulf War, when Saddam remained in power and remained belligerent but the US just kept up a regime of "maintenance bombing," as one guy put it, for years and years.

But an actual victory? Not likely.

Report: CIA Says Iran Won't Yield to US Strikes

The CIA are a bunch of paper-pushing failed-academic clowns but I think they're basically right.

A new CIA report indicates that U.S. military strikes are unlikely to change Iran's negotiating stance with the Trump administration.

U.S. military strikes won't significantly alter Iran's negotiating stance, according to a new CIA report.

A new U.S. intelligence assessment, first reported by The Washington Post, concludes that despite days of sustained U.S. airstrikes, Tehran is unlikely to soften its position or make major concessions in negotiations with the Trump administration.

According to current and former U.S. officials cited by the newspaper, CIA analysts believe the United States and Iran remain locked in an uneasy cycle of conflict that falls somewhere between war and peace, with neither side showing signs of backing down.

The assessment has reportedly been briefed to the Trump administration as U.S. forces continue retaliatory operations following renewed Iranian attacks in the Middle East.

...

Despite the military pressure, intelligence officials reportedly believe Iran's leadership remains focused on preserving the regime and is prepared to absorb significant losses rather than accept U.S. demands.

...

"They continue to send signals that they want to talk, that they want to negotiate, but their behavior is what we're responding to," Rubio recently said, noting Iran has continued launching missiles and drones at ships in the region.

But that's all nonsense. It's just the "Muslim way of war" -- attack attack attack, and then call for phony "peace talks" while you re-arm and plan your next attack. "Negotiations" just mean "give Iran time to procure new Chinese missiles and build more drones."

We could maybe kill enough Iranian regime thugs that eventually there are too few of them to control the country, but that will take years.

The likely path to victory -- excluding a ground invasion, which seems politically impossible -- will come after a year of bombing so devastating the economy completely collapses and the public is willing to wade into heavy machine-gun fire because they're starving and rip the Muslim conquerors to pieces.

And I don't know if we have any other choice than that grim endgame.

In very expected bad news, oil is over $100 per barrel again.

Global oil prices on Thursday crossed $100 a barrel for the first time since May, after Houthi militants in Yemen claimed to have struck two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea.

The reported attack, which came alongside continued strikes between the United States and Iran, threatened to worsen an oil shock that had already amounted to one of the largest in history.

Trump threatens to attack Iran every time its proxy army in Yemen attacks ships, but I don't think that's much of a threat, because he's already attacking Iran.

The jihadists of Iran plan to fight until the last dead civilian.

Below: The US Marines rappelled down to the deck of an Iranian shadow tanker and seized it.

Everyone understand a machine-gun pointed right at your head.

posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 03:18 PM

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