Reports of a Republican Midterm Loss Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Rick Moran on the Republican fundraising advantage:

I did a double take when I saw the fundraising totals for the midterm elections in Politico. Republican party committees and super PACs have raised $657 million for the midterms, now just four and a half months away. That's nearly double the $337 million the Democrats have raised.

And it gets worse for the Democrats. The largest single financial entity raising money for the midterms, MAGA, Inc., reports $400 million in cash as of June 30.

That billion-dollar-plus war chest is three times as much as the Democrats' cash entering the final months of the campaign.

...

And it has the potential to cost them if Republicans are smart about where they put all that cash.

Politico:

"What is putting the House majority and the Senate majority, nationally, in danger is the Republicans' massive stockpile of resources that they're putting together to push back," said Morgan Jackson, a longtime North Carolina Democratic strategist and an adviser to former Gov. Roy Cooper, who is running for Senate.

"If you get outspent five to six to eight to one, that can alleviate the environmental advantage that Democrats have this cycle of poor leadership from the White House, a dysfunctional Congress, a bad economy that they own," he added. "There's a lot of concern to that."

...

The Republican National Committee has $129 million in cash on hand. The Democrats are still $2 million in debt. That bespeaks an organization that's floundering, unable to raise money to pay what it owes.

The House race is now basically a toss-up: Per Fox's count -- and remember, Fox's polling operation is super-liberal and run by a Hillary Clinton supporter -- Republicans have 208 seats in the bag, Democrats have 211, and there are 16 toss-ups.

Republicans would only have to grab ten of those 16 toss-ups to win a (super-thin) majority of 218. (But it would be a more solid majority than one depending on Majorie Trailer-Queen and Thomas Massie.)

Actual Republicans continue to be historically united behind Trump, at 83%.

The Charlie Cook political report is even more bullish on the Republicans, saying that they have 212 solid seats right now, and Democrats only 205.

This post contrasts that with 2018, when Democrats won the House. Back in 2018, Democrats has 210 solid seats, and the Republicans only 195.

House race info from Liberal Hivemind.

posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 05:30 PM

| Access Comments