The Morning Rant: Minimalist Edition

Fordow, the underground facility where most of Iran's centrifuges are hidden is the key to destroying their nuclear weapons program. It is under a mountain, supposedly 300 feet deep, and therefore very, very difficult to destroy with conventional bombs. Israel has the GBU-28, which is a 5,000 pound "bunker buster," but it is thought to be too small to do enough damage to Fordow. Israel does not have the largest bomb in the American inventory, the GBU-57, which is a 30,000 pound "Massive Ordnance Penetrator." And even if it did, it does not have the heavy bombers to deliver it.

How Much Damage Has Israel Inflicted on Iran's Nuclear Program?
[leftist-driven reporting warning!]

At Iran's underground Fordow enrichment plant, the country's second uranium enrichment facility, the IAEA observed "no damage" following the attacks, Grossi said.

Israel's military is innovative, and could probably use a military cargo plane to deliver the GBU-57, although it would be a much easier operation if the United States simply used its own B-2s to destroy Fordow. But hopefully that is not going to happen. Yes, it would be the quickest and safest way to deal with the Mad Mullah's and their apocalyptic insanity, but in the short term this is Israel's problem, and Israel should deal with it.

The image of tiny Israel dealing such damage to both the infrastructure and the political and military leadership of Iran is a powerful message to Islam, and overt American involvement would decrease the strength of that message. Should the United States sell to Israel the ordnance needed to destroy their nuclear facilities? Absolutely. Should America drop those bombs ourselves? Absolutely not!

However, the long term is a very different thing, and if the theocracy survives this war, they will undoubtedly resume their drive for nuclear weapons with which to destroy Israel...and America. Yup, that is their stated goal, and they have spent their 45 years in power doing everything they could to achieve that goal.

In addition to their nuclear ambitions, Iran ramped up production of conventional ballistic missiles, with the ultimate goal of being able to overwhelm Israel's missile defense systems. The twin threat of perhaps thousands of missiles being launched, with a few nuclear-tipped missiles in the mix is untenable. That is why Israel acted now, because they are Iran's first target. But there is no reason to assume that those missiles wouldn't be used against the Saudis or the Egyptians or the French. And who knows whether the Iranians are planning ICBMs that can reach the eastern seaboard of America!

It is irrational for the West to humor Iran and ignore its clearly stated goals. Luckily we have President Trump, who takes them at their word! Imagine a world without his leadership and clarity of purpose. A Kamala Harris administration would be dithering and muddying and pressing Israel to withdraw from Gaza, and would have restarted the catastrophic nuclear agreement with Iran that Obama signed. The United Nations would be busily pumping out resolutions calling for Israel's destruction, and Iran's proxies would be emboldened.

Instead we have the Trump administration's masterful command of the Iran negotiations that clearly fooled the Mullahs into believing that their usual delaying tactics and obfuscation would continue to work.

Whoops! Whoopsie!

And rumor has it that they are contacting both Israel and the United States to end the war and return to the negotiating table. But nothing will have changed if that occurs, and it would be naive in the extreme for Israel or America to accede to their request.

Of course it is entirely possible that the Israeli decapitation of Iranian leadership will embolden the Iranian people to continue that work and overthrow the Mullahs. What comes after that is anybody's guess, and the odds of exchanging one group of madmen for another are not long. But Iran was (mostly) free before, and maybe they can be free again!

[Crossposted at CutJibNewsletter and X/Twitter] And the Apple and Spotify feeds for CJN's podcast should be working!

posted by CBD at 10:59 AM

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